Ukraine-Russia update: Has Zelenskyy’s Kursk gamble paid off?
Nov 6, 2024
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Jimmy Rushton, an independent foreign policy and security analyst based in Ukraine, shares insights on the significant challenges facing Ukraine as it braces for winter. He discusses Zelenskyy's bold Kursk offensive against Russian forces, the rising influence of North Korea in the conflict, and the pressing need for Western support to strengthen Ukraine's defense. Rushton explores the complexities of military strategies and highlights the implications of Russia's growing militarization, emphasizing the delicate balance of power in the region.
Zelenskyy’s decision to attack Kursk reflects a bold strategy amidst strained Ukrainian resources, yet raises concerns about its effectiveness against reinforced Russian offensives.
The arrival of North Korean troops to support Russia complicates the war dynamics, prompting Western allies to rethink their military support strategies for Ukraine.
Deep dives
Ukraine's Struggling Frontlines
Ukraine faces significant challenges in maintaining its defenses against determined Russian counteroffensives, particularly in regions like Kursk and the eastern front. Reports indicate that while Ukraine still controls parts of Kursk, Russia's recent military actions have resulted in territorial gains, causing concern over the sustainability of Ukraine's defensive strategies. The fighting has been described as increasingly brutal, with both sides experiencing heavy losses, revealing that major military conclusions regarding territory can often remain vague. The dynamic nature of the conflict underscores the ongoing struggle for resources and manpower, raising questions about the viability of Ukraine's current military operations.
Assessing Ukrainian Military Strategies
Ukrainian military operations, particularly the incursion into Kursk, have been critiqued for potentially diverting necessary resources from active confrontations in the east and south. As Russia has escalated its offensives, it raises the question of whether strategic decisions may have inadvertently left Ukrainian forces at a disadvantage during crucial battles. Although the Ukrainian leadership believed this operation could have political and military benefits, the practical realities on the ground depict a convoluted picture of both progress and setbacks. Many Ukrainian soldiers express confusion about the rationale behind the Kursk operation while facing an intensifying Russian advance, complicating their understanding of overall military strategy.
The Political Landscape and Western Support
The conversation surrounding Ukraine's potential territorial concessions has gained traction, informed by perceived inevitable defeat narratives following Russian advances. However, the Ukrainian government maintains that yielding territory is not a feasible solution to end the conflict, as this could further embolden Russia. Recent military developments in Kursk complicate this narrative by providing the Ukrainian government with leverage to engage in potential negotiations with Russia. The ongoing discussions in Western capitals about Ukraine's need for concessions illustrate a disconnect between foreign policymakers' views and the determination of the Ukrainian people to retain their sovereignty.
Global Implications of North Korean Involvement
North Korea's reported deployment of soldiers to assist Russian forces in Ukraine signifies a significant escalation in the conflict, highlighting the global ramifications of the war. This involvement raises concerns about the militarization of traditional conflict zones and reflects a broader strategic alignment between Russia and North Korea. For Western powers, the entry of North Korean troops into this theater challenges previous attempts at managing escalation within the conflict and could prompt further military support for Ukraine. The potential for increased military coordination among opposing forces emphasizes the urgency for Western allies to reassess their support strategies and military protocols in response to this evolving landscape.
President Zelenskyy’s attack into the Russian-occupied Kursk region of Ukraine was audacious and unexpected. But with Ukrainian resources stretched thin after three years of fighting – and with thousands of North Korean troops arriving in Russia to reinvigorate Putin’s war effort – is it working? Will the alliance between Putin and fellow dictator Kim Jong-Un make a dire conflict worse? And with the result of the US election uncertain, will Western allies finally provide the support Ukraine needs to defeat Russia?
Oz Katerji talks to independent foreign policy and security analyst Jimmy Rushton in Kyiv about reporting from the front lines and the prospects for Ukraine, and wider Europe, as the full-scale war approaches the end of its third year.
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Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.