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NAB Morning Call

Not so Tariffic

Feb 2, 2025
Tapas Strickland, NAB’s expert market economist and strategist, sheds light on the economic landscape shaped by recent US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. He discusses how these tariffs could redefine expectations for global growth and inflation. Strickland delves into the repercussions on GDP and market reactions, while also considering labor market indicators like rising employment costs. The discussion highlights the complexities of international trade relationships and potential retaliatory actions from other nations.
18:01

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Quick takeaways

  • The newly imposed tariffs by President Trump have triggered significant market volatility, prompting concerns over global growth and inflationary pressures.
  • The trade war's implications include potential GDP declines for the U.S. and Canada, necessitating a reevaluation of trade relationships and economic policies.

Deep dives

Imposition of Tariffs and Immediate Market Reactions

President Trump has imposed substantial tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, marking the onset of a trade war with immediate implications for market sentiment. As the tariffs were announced late in the trading week, stocks, particularly in the United States, experienced volatility, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closing lower. Currency fluctuations also became evident, leading to a 0.5% rise in the dollar index, while the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso marginally depreciated. The sudden announcement and the expectation of retaliatory trade measures from affected countries have created uncertainty and unrest in financial markets, prompting analysts to anticipate further significant shifts in the coming days.

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