RJ Bell's Dream Preview CBB Wednesday Preview + Best Bets !!
Griffin Warner and Big East Ben talk college basketball betting for Wednesday. The guys preview the 5 biggest games and give out best bets.
The podcast boasts a 65% win rate on best bets (17-9 record), with both hosts discussing five key matchups, statistics, and betting strategies.
Game Analysis & Best Bets
1. Alabama at Mississippi State (3:30 - 7:05)
- Mississippi State is a one-point favorite. Total set at 166.
- Key analysis:
- Alabama is coming off strong wins against Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and LSU.
- Mississippi State plays a more controlled tempo (77th in offensive possession length, 176th in tempo).
- Big East Ben’s play: Under 166 total points. Mississippi State will slow the pace and force Alabama into contested threes.
- Griffin Warner's play: Mississippi State -1 due to their depth and physicality.
2. Wisconsin at Maryland (7:07 - 12:07)
- Maryland is favored by 4 points. Total at 154.
- Key analysis:
- Wisconsin excels at getting to the foul line (85% free-throw shooting, best in the country).
- Maryland ranks 32nd nationally in avoiding fouls, making it difficult for Wisconsin to exploit this strength.
- Both analysts agree: Maryland -4.
- Griffin Warner also leans under 154, citing Maryland's defensive pressure.
3. Xavier at Creighton (12:09 - 16:11)
- Creighton is favored by 6 points. Total at 142.
- Key analysis:
- Xavier is relying on 3-pointers (38% shooting), but Creighton is elite at limiting foul shots and running teams off the 3-point line.
- Creighton has won five straight, but the schedule hasn’t been difficult.
- Big East Ben’s play: Creighton -6 because of their defensive ability.
- Griffin Warner agrees: Creighton -6, noting Xavier might struggle in Omaha.
4. St. Mary’s at Santa Clara (16:13 - 21:55)
- St. Mary’s is a 4-point favorite. Total at 139.5.
- Key analysis:
- Santa Clara has strong wins over Gonzaga and Washington State.
- St. Mary’s is 8-0 in conference play but hasn’t faced tough competition yet.
- Both analysts favor Santa Clara:
- Big East Ben: Santa Clara +4, citing their defensive size to disrupt St. Mary’s.
- Griffin Warner agrees, arguing St. Mary’s hasn’t been tested.
5. Texas at Mississippi (Ole Miss) (21:57 - 31:04)
- Ole Miss is favored by 6.5 points. Total at 140.5.
- Key analysis:
- Texas is coming off a dramatic comeback win over Texas A&M but looked shaky throughout.
- Ole Miss has lost three straight and is in desperation mode.
- Big East Ben’s play: Under 140.5 due to strong Ole Miss defense.
- Griffin Warner’s play: Ole Miss -6.5, noting Chris Beard’s revenge angle after being fired by Texas.
Best Bets Recap
- Big East Ben’s Best Bet (31:07 - 32:07):
- West Virginia +7.5 vs. Houston
- WVU thrives at home against top-ranked teams.
- Griffin Warner’s Best Bet (32:07 - 33:18):
- Furman +1 vs. Samford
- Furman’s new arena, shooting ability, and home-court advantage give them the edge.
Final Thoughts
- The hosts emphasize sticking to betting principles and avoiding recency bias.
- A promo code "KEY30" is offered for discounts on betting packages.
- Next podcast episode: A deep dive into Saturday’s college basketball slate.
Key Takeaways
🏀 Alabama vs. Mississippi State:
Mississippi State's defense will slow Alabama, leading to an under play (166 total points).
🏀 Wisconsin vs. Maryland:
Maryland’s home advantage and discipline will be the difference (-4 pick).
🏀 Xavier vs. Creighton:
Creighton’s defense on the perimeter makes them the right pick at -6.
🏀 St. Mary’s vs. Santa Clara:
Santa Clara’s underrated defense and home edge justify a bet on +4.
🏀 Texas vs. Ole Miss:
Ole Miss’ strong defense and Texas' recent struggles lead to an under play (140.5 total points).
🔥 Best Bets:
✅ West Virginia +7.5 vs. Houston (Big East Ben)
✅ Furman +1 vs. Samford (Griffin Warner)
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