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Macro Voices

MacroVoices #444 Mike Alkin: Uranium Fundamentals Couldn’t Be Better

Sep 5, 2024
Mike Alkin, a uranium market specialist, joins to unpack the complexities of this vital sector. He discusses the challenges posed by the absence of liquid futures contracts and the complacency of utility buyers amid rising global uranium supply concerns. Alkin dives into procurement processes for unrefined uranium, geopolitical influences, and the ramifications of recent price hikes. He also reveals how Kazatomprom's actions affect market dynamics and warns against the risks of complacency, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
01:21:07

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The uranium market predominantly relies on long-term contracts, making it less responsive to immediate supply-demand fluctuations despite increasing global demand.
  • Geopolitical tensions, especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict, threaten uranium supply chains, leading to complacency among utility buyers who underestimate associated risks.

Deep dives

Uranium Market Dynamics

The uranium market is largely characterized by long-term contracts, with about 85% of transactions occurring in this segment. Utilities prefer to secure their uranium supply by engaging in long-term agreements that span several years, rather than relying on spot market fluctuations. This arrangement allows them to control the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from mining to conversion, ensuring a consistent and reliable fuel source for their reactors. However, this structure also leads to increased vulnerability to market manipulation in the smaller spot market, where only 15% of transactions take place, creating uncertainties and price variations.

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