Ukraine kills Russian general: How will Moscow respond?
Dec 17, 2024
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Shashank Joshi, Defence editor at The Economist, and Baiba Braže, Latvia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, delve into the fallout from the assassination of Russian General Igor Kirillov. They analyze how this event could reshape Russia's military strategy and Eastern European security. The conversation touches on the broader implications for U.S. policy under a new administration and examines the thin line between effective military operations and potential diplomatic negotiations. Disinformation strategies are also critiqued as the conflict evolves.
The assassination of General Igor Kirilov indicates Ukraine's operational effectiveness and ambition to disrupt Russian military strategies within its territory.
Analysts believe the Kremlin's response may be limited, with potential escalations likely resulting in backlash rather than significant gains.
Deep dives
Assassination of Igor Kirilov
General Igor Kirilov, a high-ranking Russian military official, was killed in an explosion linked to an electric scooter just outside the Kremlin, sparking significant concern regarding the implications of his death. He had recently been charged by Ukraine for using chemical weapons on the battlefield, making him a critical figure both militarily and for propaganda purposes in the ongoing conflict. His involvement with controversial claims, such as those regarding the development of dangerous biological weapons, positioned him as a target for Ukrainian intelligence. The incident raises questions about Ukraine's capacity and resolve to carry out operations within Russian territory, an indication of their operational effectiveness.
Potential Russian Response
The Russian government may respond to the assassination of Kirilov, but analysts believe the options available to them for escalation are limited, considering their previous responses to similar events. Analysts suggest that Russia has already utilized many of its escalation strategies and that further aggressive actions might cause more backlash than benefits. Historical patterns suggest that retaliatory measures could include intensified bombing of Ukrainian infrastructure, a tactic seen during prior provocations. The lack of nuclear response is emphasized, as such measures are deemed reserved for the most extreme scenarios.
Ukrainian Military and Intelligence Impact
The operation to eliminate Kirilov serves as a testament to the capabilities and effectiveness of Ukrainian military and intelligence forces, drawing parallels to Israel's strategic targeting methods. Analysts note that this assassination signals Ukraine's ability to disrupt Russian operations by removing key personnel who contribute to military and chemical warfare strategies. Furthermore, this act may send a powerful message regarding accountability for war crimes, suggesting that Ukrainian operatives can target those responsible for atrocities against them. The implications extend beyond tactics; it reflects the broader struggle for narrative control and psychological warfare in the ongoing conflict.
Sources in Kyiv say Ukraine killed Igor Kirillov, a senior Russian general who died in scooter blast in Moscow on Tuesday.
So how might the Kremlin respond? And what could this mean for the war in Ukraine?
Latvia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Baiba Braže and The Economist's defence editor Shashank Joshi give their reaction.
Also, can President-elect Trump restrict Ukraine’s ability to use long range missiles within Russia?
Today’s episode is presented by Victoria Derbyshire and Vitaly Shevchenko.
The producers were Arsenii Sokolov and Diane Richardson. The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The series producer is Tim Walklate. The senior news editor is Sara Wadeson.
Email Ukrainecast@bbc.co.uk with your questions and comments. You can also send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp, Signal or Telegram to +44 330 1239480
You can join the Ukrainecast discussion on Newscast’s Discord server here: tinyurl.com/ukrainecastdiscord
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