The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Just Stop Oil !? Part 1 - Gasoline | Frankly #37

Jul 14, 2023

09:07

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Quick takeaways

The demand for gasoline does not have a 1:1 correlation with the demand for oil, as other oil fractions such as kerosene and inputs to the plastics industry still require processing.

Using electric vehicles (EVs) alone cannot eliminate the need for oil, as oil consumption is deeply embedded in our culture and tightly linked to GDP.

Deep dives

Misconception about oil processing

A prevalent misconception, especially in the environmental movement, is that if we no longer need gasoline, we would require significantly less oil. However, the reality is that oil is processed vertically, with each component sequentially distilled off. Even if we eliminate the demand for gasoline, we would still need the same amount of oil since other fractions, such as kerosene, jet fuel, and inputs to the plastics industry, require processing. Shifting refinery processes to generate more diesel instead of gasoline is possible over time but would be costly and time-consuming.

Introduction

3min

The Cost and Affordability of Oil

3min

The Non-Systemic Response to Stopping Oil

2min

In this must watch Frankly, Nate illustrates how a reduction in the demand for gasoline will not - as commonly believed - result in a 1:1 reduction in the demand for oil. This is contrary to a widespread perception, which much growth in the Electric Vehicle industry has been based on, about the correlation between a decline in gasoline usage resulting in an overall decline in oil production and CO2 emissions. While a significant portion of oil refining results in gasoline, we need to be aware of modern civilization's deep dependencies on the remaining products that all come from the same barrel of oil. Only then can we understand and plan for feasible pathways to reducing oil production and consumption within the confines of a growth-dependent complex adaptive system. How can movements such as Just Stop Oil better reflect the reality of the current oil production system and our economy?

Stay tuned next week when Nate shares 7 potential paths to a less oil-dependent future.

A special thank you to Joris van der Schot, John Rowan, Robert Rapier, and Art Berman for helpful input on this video.

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/H-zYjcsLE_E

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/37-just-stop-oil-part-1-gasoline