This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler
The Israel/Hamas Ceasefire – Can it hold?
Jan 16, 2025
Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a Middle East expert and Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, explores the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. He discusses the ambiguity of the deal and its potential for renewal of hostilities, citing external influences like Trump’s involvement. Hellyer shares insights on Hamas’s governance challenges and the future of Gaza post-conflict. The conversation highlights a fragile sense of hope and the complexities of diplomacy in the region, reflecting on the historical context of peace efforts.
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Quick takeaways
- The newly established ceasefire agreement offers a temporary reprieve from violence but remains fragile amid skepticism about its longevity.
- Internal Israeli politics, particularly Benjamin Netanyahu's maneuvering, significantly impact the conflict's trajectory and future governance of Gaza.
Deep dives
Ceasefire Agreement in Gaza
A new ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas, marking a notable development in a prolonged conflict. This deal includes a phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, introducing a potential six-week ceasefire meant to reduce violence and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. However, skepticism remains regarding the durability of this ceasefire, as past deals often result in escalated attacks soon after announcements are made. Despite the optimism surrounding the agreement, the reality on the ground suggests ongoing instability and the need for more comprehensive discussions about lasting peace.
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