This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler The Israel/Hamas Ceasefire – Can it hold?
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Jan 16, 2025 
Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a Middle East expert and Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, explores the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. He discusses the ambiguity of the deal and its potential for renewal of hostilities, citing external influences like Trump’s involvement. Hellyer shares insights on Hamas’s governance challenges and the future of Gaza post-conflict. The conversation highlights a fragile sense of hope and the complexities of diplomacy in the region, reflecting on the historical context of peace efforts.
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Ceasefire Deal's Mixed Impact
- The ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas offers potential relief and humanitarian aid.
- The implementation, starting Sunday, will likely involve increased violence before any positive effects.
Ceasefire Deal Resemblance and Trump's Influence
- The current ceasefire deal resembles previous proposals, but Trump's involvement expedited the process.
- The deal's success hinges on a commitment to end fighting, which is currently absent, raising concerns about Netanyahu's intentions.
Netanyahu's Political Motivations for Conflict
- Netanyahu's political motivations, including potential charges against him, might incentivize continued conflict.
- A national inquiry into the October 7th events could negatively impact Netanyahu, making prolonged conflict politically advantageous.