Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Why Chinese Bond Yields Have Collapsed | Louis Vincent Gave’s Bull Case For Chinese Stocks and Chinese Property Bonds

59 snips
Jan 22, 2025
Louis Vincent Gave, the Founding Partner and CEO at Gavekal, offers a compelling dive into China's economic landscape. He discusses the surprising resilience of Chinese bond yields amid a shaky stock market and the complexities of financing for entrepreneurs. Gave explores the booming electric vehicle sector, contrasts investment versus consumption dynamics, and evaluates the shifting U.S.-China relations. He also addresses the landscape of Chinese venture capital and the implications for future investments, painting a nuanced picture of China's economic potential.
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INSIGHT

Chinese Bond Rally

  • The Chinese bond market has outperformed for four years, with the 10-year yield at 1.66%.
  • This contrasts with the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.62%, a near 3% difference.
INSIGHT

Post-Election Bond Moves

  • One explanation for the bond rally is Chinese entities selling U.S. treasuries after Trump's election.
  • This was done to mitigate uncertainty about Trump's policies.
INSIGHT

Trade Surplus and Bond Rally

  • China's trillion-dollar trade surplus creates uncertainty for businesses due to tariff threats.
  • This leads to increased bank deposits and banks buying government bonds, boosting bond markets.
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