China controls 80-90% of critical metal refining, and that’s a big problem for the West’s data center, energy, and defense sectors, our guest Craig Tindale explains.
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Welcome back to The Blockspace Podcast! Today, Craig Tindale, macro investor and former manufacturing consultant, joins us to talk about the critical mineral shortage and multi-trillion dollar problem facing the US data center, energy, and defense sectors. We dive into his "Critical Mineral Thesis," exploring how China secured 80-90% of the world's critical mineral refining capacity. Craig explains the "midstream matrix," the looming 25,000-tonne silver deficit, and why the US is like a "turtle on its back" after decades of outsourcing. We discuss if sound money can save a system that has lost its atomic backbone.
If you’d like to read Craig Tindale’s work to learn more, you can find his seminal articles here:
-Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis
-The Hard Bifurcation
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Notes:
* China controls 80-90% of mineral refining.
* 70% of silver production refined in China.
* 25,000-tonne silver deficit in four years.
* Large transformers have 4-5 year wait times.
* Chinese firms borrow at 2-4% interest.
Timestamps:
00:00 Start
02:37 Who is Craig?
10:15 Thesis
13:49 Silver problems
17:41 Tin
19:50 Titanium
22:42 Recession game theory
27:32 Sound money standard
33:43 Regulation outlook
40:24 Reshoring industry
45:22 Data center demand
49:39 Energy generation stagnation
54:52 Waking up to reality
1:00:52 Greenland & political games
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