Vulnerable metals for AI and energy

China controls 80-90% of critical metal refining, and that’s a big problem for the West’s data center, energy, and defense sectors, our guest Craig Tindale explains.

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Welcome back to The Blockspace Podcast! Today, Craig Tindale, macro investor and former manufacturing consultant, joins us to talk about the critical mineral shortage and multi-trillion dollar problem facing the US data center, energy, and defense sectors. We dive into his "Critical Mineral Thesis," exploring how China secured 80-90% of the world's critical mineral refining capacity. Craig explains the "midstream matrix," the looming 25,000-tonne silver deficit, and why the US is like a "turtle on its back" after decades of outsourcing. We discuss if sound money can save a system that has lost its atomic backbone.

If you’d like to read Craig Tindale’s work to learn more, you can find his seminal articles here:

-Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis

-The Hard Bifurcation

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Notes:

* China controls 80-90% of mineral refining.

* 70% of silver production refined in China.

* 25,000-tonne silver deficit in four years.

* Large transformers have 4-5 year wait times.

* Chinese firms borrow at 2-4% interest.

Timestamps:

00:00 Start

02:37 Who is Craig?

10:15 Thesis

13:49 Silver problems

17:41 Tin

19:50 Titanium

22:42 Recession game theory

27:32 Sound money standard

33:43 Regulation outlook

40:24 Reshoring industry

45:22 Data center demand

49:39 Energy generation stagnation

54:52 Waking up to reality

1:00:52 Greenland & political games

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