Ben Hubbard, Istanbul bureau chief for The New York Times, explores Hamas's motivations behind their recent attack on Israel's border and their quest for regional war. The chapter also discusses the background and career of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, and the implications of their actions on the future governance of Gaza.
Hamas's decision to carry out the terror attack on Israel was driven by the need to bring global attention back to the Palestinian cause.
The attack orchestrated by Hamas was a highly sophisticated and coordinated effort, surpassing their expectations and leaving both sides uncertain about the future.
Deep dives
Hamas's Motivation and Strategy behind the Attack
Hamas's decision to carry out the horrifying terror attack on Israel, resulting in the mass murder of non-combatants, was driven by a variety of factors. The leadership felt that the Palestinian cause was fading away and that the conflict was reaching a point of no return. They believed that they needed to do something big and dramatic to bring global attention back to the Palestinian cause. The attack was carefully planned and aimed to blow up the existing status quo in the region. The ultimate goal was to create a regional war and hope that new opportunities and options would emerge.
Hamas's Calculated Approach to the Attack
The attack orchestrated by Hamas was a highly sophisticated and coordinated effort, far more complex than their previous attacks on Israel. It involved multiple modes of operation, including air, land, and sea, targeting Israeli military bases and communities. They sought to cause significant casualties and capture Israeli soldiers as part of their strategy. The attack surpassed their expectations in terms of success, with Hamas now holding around 240 Israeli captives. It has pushed the conflict into uncharted territory, leaving both sides uncertain about what comes next.
Hamas's Grievances and Desire to Disrupt the Status Quo
Hamas identified several grievances and events that contributed to their belief that the Palestinian cause was slipping away. This included the rise of a right-wing government in Israel, attacks by settlers on Palestinian communities in the West Bank, police raids on the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the Israeli blockade of Gaza. They also expressed frustration with Arab countries normalizing relations with Israel without resolving the Palestinian conflict. These factors compelled Hamas to take action and carry out a significant attack to reassert the cause and gain international attention.
The Uncertain Future and Potential Outcomes
The aftermath of the attack raises many uncertainties about the future. While the attack achieved its goal of disrupting the status quo and putting the Palestinian cause back on the table, it's unclear how long-lasting the effects will be. The response from militant allies, such as Hezbollah, has been cautious, indicating that the envisioned large-scale regional war has not materialized. The conflict could lead to increased violence and destruction or, at best, a return to the previous status quo, which could be even worse for the people of Gaza. The lack of a clear plan from both Hamas and Israel further complicates the situation.
To much of the outside world, Hamas’s decision to murder hundreds of Israelis and trigger a war that has since killed many thousands of its own people looks like a historic miscalculation — one that could soon result in the destruction of Hamas itself.
Hamas’s leaders, however, say that it was the result of a deliberate calculation.
Ben Hubbard, the Istanbul bureau chief for The New York Times, has been reporting on their decision, and what went into it.
Guest: Ben Hubbard, the Istanbul bureau chief for The New York Times.
For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.
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