Iran in the Crosshairs + Trump's Neocons w/ James Carden/Syria & the Caucasus w/ Eldar Mamedov
Dec 19, 2024
auto_awesome
In this engaging discussion, James W. Carden, a Middle Eastern politics expert and former U.S. State Department advisor, warns of escalating tensions with Iran fueled by neoconservative ideologies. He explores the implications of the Assad regime's overthrow, Israel's dynamic with Turkey, and the potential for conflict in Syria. Meanwhile, international relations analyst Eldar Mamedov delves into the effects on Armenia and Azerbaijan, analyzing the shifting power balance in the Caucasus and the fragile alliances forming against a weakened Iran.
The podcast emphasizes the heightened risk of military conflict with Iran, driven by Israel's ambitions and the support of neoconservative figures in U.S. policy.
Discussion highlights the shifting geopolitical alliances led by China, particularly the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, altering the balance in West Asia.
Deep dives
Iran and the Threat of Conflict with Israel
Tensions are rising regarding a potential conflict with Iran, especially in light of Israel's current ambitions to confront the Iranian regime. Israel's Prime Minister is motivated to act decisively while Iran appears vulnerable following the collapse of Assad's regime in Syria. There are indications that Israel and potential allies are preparing for military action against Iran, possibly before the transition to the next U.S. administration is complete. The atmosphere is marked by a sense of urgency among proponents of conflict, amplifying concerns about further destabilization in the region.
The Emerging Regional Order in West Asia
The current geopolitical landscape is seeing the establishment of a new regional order, significantly influenced by China. China's role as a diplomatic broker has enabled a rapprochement between traditional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia, reshaping alliances and challenges in West Asia. This shift is expected to create a block-based conflict environment, with the U.S. and Israel aligning against Iranian and allied forces, particularly as changes in U.S. foreign policy might mirror Israel’s strategic interests. The realignment could further complicate the ongoing conflicts and security dynamics in the region.
Turkey's Role and Future Ambitions
Turkey is positioned as a significant player amidst the shifting alliances in Syria and the broader Middle East, leveraging its temporary cooperation with Israel while still eyeing its ambitions in the region. The country aims to assert itself as a dominant power, reflecting what has been characterized as a neo-Ottoman agenda. Tensions may arise as Turkey's interests evolve, especially regarding its relationship with Israel and Azerbaijan amidst tensions with Iran. This dynamic suggests future complexities that may arise from competing interests and could lead to potential clashes.
Implications of a Fragmented Syrian State
The collapse of the Syrian state raises urgent concerns about the potential for chaos and the rise of extremism in the region. There is a risk that various factions could vie for control, leading to a power vacuum that may facilitate the rise of terrorist organizations. International actors are urged to engage with the existing Syrian authorities to stabilize the situation, rather than imposing geopolitical demands that could exacerbate the issue. A focus on rebuilding and securing the state is seen as crucial to prevent further humanitarian crises and regional instability.
On this edition of Parallax Views, in the first segment of the show James W. Carden, a contributing editor to The American Conservative and a former adviser to the U.S. State Department, returns to discuss his article "Iran: America’s Next War Of Choice", co-authored with Col. Douglas MacGregor, and "How the Neocons Won the Transition". We'll delve into what the overthrow of Assad means in relation to a weakened Iran. James believes we are closer than ever before to a potential conflict with Iran as Israel's Netanyahu and neoconservative ideologues in Washington D.C. are chomping at the bit for regime change in Iran. We'll also discuss the Israel-Turkey relationship and how that relationship may become more contentious over Syria, however Carden notes that, for the time being Turkey and Iran will cooperate with each other against their shared enemy of Iran. We'll also discuss a key player in Trump's transition team, Howard Lutnick, and how he seems to have his fingers all over Trump's rather neoconservative and foreign policy hawk appointments for the 2nd Trump administration.
In the second segment of the show, international relations analyst Eldar Mamedov returns to discuss what the overthrow of Assad means for the Caucasus, with a particular focus on Armenia and Azerbaijan. With Iran's power now weakened in the region, Armenia has a lot to worry about from Azerbaijan, a country that says it wants "peace" with Armenia but only on its' own rather maximalist terms that are not going to be accepted by Armenia. We'll also discuss how the U.S. should respond to the new leadership in Syria, specifically the Islamist HTS led by Jolani, and what must be avoided to prevent instability in Syria. Moreover, Eldar and I will go over what Turkey's ambitions in Syria and the region are under the leadership of Erdogan.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode