Macro Mondays #55 - What is China doing with all it’s copper?
Jul 1, 2024
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The podcast discusses Biden's debate performance impact on markets, China's influence on exchange rates, global commodity trends, and economic indicators analysis. Also covers political debates, commodity trading strategies, and portfolio strategies.
38:18
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Quick takeaways
Potential Biden debate fallout may impact financial markets, suggesting a Trump win.
Global commodities affected by Chinese devaluations and low-duration economies' pass-through effects.
Insightful data-driven investment strategies and market opportunities discussed, focusing on upcoming economic indicators.
Deep dives
The Debate Performance Impact on Biden's Candidacy
The Democratic pundits expressed shock after Biden's weak debate performance, highlighting the danger of debates before the Democratic convention. The potential for Biden to step down due to performance concerns was raised, with financial markets indicating a likely Trump win.
Global Trade Dynamics and Commodities
The discussion delved into the impact of Chinese devaluations and trade dynamics on commodities like gold. Insights into countries like Canada, Australia, and Sweden being low-duration economies indicated swift rate cut pass-through effects, hinting at economic acceleration and potential implications for central banks.
Agricultural Commodities Trading Insights
Mark Milho from Copenhagen Merchants shared valuable insights on agri-commodity trading. Discussion on wheat and corn dynamics highlighted production changes in countries like Russia and France, influencing global wheat stocks. The focus on data-driven investment strategies and actionable trade options provided a perspective on market opportunities.
Forecasting Non-Farm Payroll and Consumption Trends
Anticipation for upcoming US economic data like non-farm payroll numbers and consumption trends was insightful. Analysis of withheld taxes as an indicator for payroll forecasts and the consumption landscape shed light on potential investment strategies in light of economic indicators.
Engagement with Audience and Future Market Expectations
The episode closed with interactions on memes, UK election prospects, and market expectations for Jay Powell's speech. Market insights on inflation studies and the macroeconomic trading portfolio's risk-on approach for July rounded off the podcast with a focus on current trends and future expectations.