Global Asset Prices are Repricing Risk Assets (Rapidly)
Aug 7, 2024
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Paul Krugman, a renowned economist, and Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor, dive into the chaotic shift in global asset prices amid growing recession fears. They discuss how the U.S. recession is reshaping fundamental market perceptions and pressuring central banks for rate cuts. The conversation highlights the role of Japanese banks in impacting global credit dynamics, emphasizing their strategic investments in U.S. assets. Both guests unpack rising credit spreads, scrutinizing the disconnect between economic optimism and harsh realities like unemployment.
The onset of a US recession is prompting significant changes in global asset prices, leading to urgent calls for emergency rate cuts from economists.
Japanese banks' exposure to US junk assets amidst economic uncertainty highlights a critical reassessment of risk perceptions across international markets.
Deep dives
The Impact of a US Recession
The onset of a US recession prompts significant changes in the global economic landscape, creating a ripple effect that alters risk perceptions across markets. The recent stock market reactions, during a period termed 'turnaround Tuesday,' indicate a temporary stabilization; however, this should not overshadow the ongoing process of re-pricing risk. Both mainstream economists and market analysts acknowledge that the previous narrative of a resilient economy was fundamentally flawed, with many now calling for emergency rate cuts to address the prevailing economic weakness. This recognition signifies a critical shift in awareness regarding economic realities, necessitating a reevaluation of previous assumptions about stability and growth.
The Vulnerability of Japanese Banks
Japanese banks play a crucial role in the global credit system, and their recent exposure to riskier US junk assets ties back to the false sense of security surrounding a 'soft landing' for the US economy. When the economic outlook shifted, these banks faced substantial losses, forcing a necessary withdrawal from global credit markets. This retraction inevitably leads to a surge in the yen's value, attempting to safeguard against deteriorating conditions abroad. Consequently, the impact extends beyond Japan, leading to widespread liquidity issues and volatility in financial markets worldwide as banks withdraw their funding amidst a broader economic reassessment.
Re-pricing Systemic Risk
The rapid adjustments in credit spreads highlight the urgent need to address systemic risks now permeating the global financial landscape. As economic indicators such as payroll reports reflect a downturn, markets are beginning to reprice expectations related to both short-term and long-term risks. The escalation of credit spreads, particularly observed in recent volatility, reveals the interconnected nature of financial markets, where disruptions in one area can lead to cascading effects through the Eurodollar funding system. This ongoing re-pricing process suggests that the implications of the US recession will be profound, impacting investor sentiment and risking further financial instability in the long run.
When even big-name mainstream Economists are begging the Fed for emergency rate cuts, you might already have the sense this wasn't just a one-weekend show. US recession scrambles a lot of fundamental perceptions and values, causing a substantial and sizable repricing across asset classes. That repricing just happened to be most obvious and violent in Japan.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Paul Krugman X https://x.com/paulkrugman/status/1820426175031673269
CNBC Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel says Fed needs to make an emergency rate cut https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.html