Ismar Volić, a mathematics professor and director of the Institute for Mathematics and Democracy, teams up with Theodore R. Johnson, a scholar of Black electoral politics and Washington Post columnist. They delve into how math shapes apportionment in the U.S. Congress and the historical rivalry between Jefferson and Hamilton over rounding methods. The duo discusses the flaws of the Electoral College, potential reforms for fairer voting, and how statistical techniques could enhance democratic representation. Brace for a blend of humor, history, and enlightening insights!
The significant increase in the ratio of representatives to constituents in the U.S. raises concerns about effective democratic representation.
The mathematical complexity behind apportionment methods reveals systemic issues like misrepresentation and highlights the need for electoral reform.
Deep dives
Historical Context of Apportionment in the U.S.
Apportionment was a significant topic during the Constitutional Convention, where the founding fathers debated how many constituents each representative should have. James Madison suggested a ratio of approximately 30,000 people per representative, acknowledging the need for adjustment as the population grew. However, today's ratio has drastically increased to about 760,000 people per representative, raising concerns about the feasibility of effective representation. This gap in representation is exacerbated by the influence of special interests and lobbyists, indicating a disconnect between elected officials and the citizens they represent.
Impact of the 1929 Apportionment Act
The Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929 established a cap of 435 representatives in the House, which, at the time, meant each member represented around 280,000 people. Since then, the U.S. population has tripled, making this ratio significantly less effective for representation. Many other democratic countries adjust the number of representatives based on population growth, unlike the U.S., which has remained an outlier in terms of ratio. This stagnation presents challenges for active representation and addressing the diverse needs of constituents.
Rounding Methods and Their Consequences
The podcast discusses how representatives are allocated to states based on population using various rounding methods, notably those proposed by Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton. Jefferson's method changes the standard divisor until it achieves the desired number of seats, while Hamilton's approach rounds down and then assigns extra seats based on the largest remainders. Each method has its flaws, leading to issues like the Alabama paradox, where a state might lose seats despite an overall increase in the number of representatives. Ultimately, both methods influenced the current practice, showcasing the complex mathematical underpinnings of apportionment.
The Need for Mathematical Reevaluation in Democracy
An important takeaway is the inherent mathematical complexity of democratic processes, which can lead to systemic inefficiencies and misrepresentation. Various proposed reforms, such as increasing the House size or adjusting apportionment methods, highlight the need for continuous evaluation and improvement of democratic systems. The discussion also touches on the Electoral College, emphasizing its origins in compromise rather than mathematical integrity. By critically examining and updating these processes through a mathematical lens, democracy can better reflect and serve its constituents.
We in the United States are deep in the middle of a major national election, and over half of the world’s population also have elections in 2024. This is why Carry the Two is going to focus on the intersection of mathematics and democracy for our new season.
In this episode, the second episode of our mathematics and democracy season, we speak again with mathematician Ismar Volić of Wellesley College and Director of the Institute for Mathematics and Democracy and Theodore R. Johnson, a scholar of Black electoral politics, a military veteran, and a contributing columnist at The Washington Post. We dig into what mathematics has to say about how the USA apportions members of the House of Representatives to states, learn how a fight between Jefferson and Hamilton over rounding led to the first presidential veto, and discuss different techniques for reforming the Electoral College.