Looking Ahead to the December Fed Meeting & Markets in 2025
Dec 17, 2024
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Julian Emanuel, a market strategist at Evercore ISI, discusses his bullish S&P 500 target for 2025 amidst ongoing inflation concerns. Meghan Robson from BNP Paribas shares insights on credit markets post-election, highlighting Europe's potential as an outperformer. Bill Priest, chairman at TD Epoch, emphasizes the importance of free cash flow analysis in global investing, while addressing political risks and the challenges in U.S. corporate strategies. Together, they navigate the dynamic landscape of interest rates, investment strategies, and the global economic outlook.
The podcast emphasizes the importance of free cash flow in assessing a company's financial health and potential for sustainable growth.
AI is highlighted as a long-term investment theme, indicating its role in driving future business performance and operational efficiency.
Deep dives
Investing in AI and Robotics
The Global X Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF (ticker BOTZ) is highlighted as an investment option for those looking to include AI in their portfolio. This ETF focuses on companies that are driving innovation in robotics and AI across various sectors including industrial and healthcare. However, potential investors are warned about the risks involved, including the chance of losing principal as technology companies face issues like rapid product obsolescence and intense competition. Careful consideration of the fund's objectives and risks is advised before investing.
Market Performance and Earnings Forecasts
Forecasts for the S&P index point to an expected growth target of 6,800 for 2025, relying on the persistent leadership of certain sectors. Earnings estimates for the year are set at a conservative 9.6%, slightly below the current optimistic projections. This reflects a historical trend where initial earnings forecasts tend to be overly optimistic, particularly when recovering from economic disruptions like the pandemic. Volatility is anticipated due to market conditions and macroeconomic factors, including political influences and small-cap stock performance.
Free Cash Flow and Corporate Strategy
A strong emphasis is placed on the significance of free cash flow in determining a company's financial health and potential for shareholder returns. Good free cash flow allows companies to execute share buybacks, pay dividends, or reinvest in growth opportunities. The idea posits that companies should consistently outperform their cost of capital for sustainable growth; otherwise, their value propositions falter. Methodologies for analyzing cash flow quality, including return on incremental capital, are essential for discerning which companies can effectively utilize their cash flow.
The Role of AI in Future Business Strategy
AI is now viewed not merely as a trading option but as a fundamental and enduring theme for future business performance. The productivity gains observed recently do not solely stem from AI, suggesting that many companies still have untapped potential in effectively deploying AI technologies. Investment strategies are shifting to account for how businesses may creatively implement AI to drive growth and operational efficiency. This trend reflects a long-term view that AI integration will deepen rather than act as a short-term gimmick.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 17th, 2024 Featuring:
Julian Emanuel, Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity, Derivatives, and Quantitative Strategy at Evercore ISI, on raising his S&P target for 2025 and previews the Fed meeting
Meghan Robson, Head of US Credit Strategy at BNP Paribas, on credit positioning post-US election, political risks, and why she likes Europe to outperform the US
Bill Priest, Chairman at TD Epoch, talks about global investing, his role leading the firm, and outlook for the US in 2025