Trump And Taiwan: A Big, Beautiful Relationship Or The Deal Maker’s Ultimate Bargaining Chip?
Apr 10, 2025
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Randy Schriver, a key figure in U.S.-Taiwan relations and former Trump administration official, shares insights on the evolving dynamics of Taiwan's security and U.S. policy. He discusses the rising military tension with China and Taiwan's strategic importance. The conversation highlights Taiwan's semiconductor industry and its implications for global supply chains. Schriver also examines the impact of recent foreign aid cuts in Southeast Asia and the complexities of U.S. support for Taiwan's defense needs amidst an unsettled geopolitical landscape.
The U.S.-Taiwan relationship faces uncertainty as Taiwan enhances its defense budget amid fears of U.S. concessions in negotiations with China.
President Trump's foreign policy emphasizes the Indo-Pacific, prioritizing security assistance and arms sales to bolster Taiwan against Chinese aggression.
Taiwan's strategic efforts to improve military readiness and invest in defense reflect its need for resilience amid escalating Chinese military pressures.
Deep dives
Current U.S.-Taiwan Relationship Context
The U.S.-Taiwan relationship is amid significant uncertainty, particularly following the early months of Donald Trump's second term. Taiwan has taken proactive measures such as increasing its defense budget and making substantial investments in the U.S. to solidify its standing. However, there remain critical questions regarding the strength and durability of the relationship amid fears that U.S. concessions might be on the table in any potential negotiations with China. The possible scenarios range from an enduring partnership to a troubling grand bargain that might undermine Taiwan's security.
Strategic Focus on Indo-Pacific
The Trump administration is shaping its foreign policy with a notable focus on the Indo-Pacific region, particularly concerning China. Despite the tumultuous nature of federal reorganization and shifts in other global commitments, the administration appears to prioritize anti-China strategies and security assistance in the Indo-Pacific. This includes maintaining arms sales to Taiwan at historically high levels, aiming to bolster Taiwan's defense capabilities against increasing Chinese aggression. Continued prioritization of U.S. efforts in the Indo-Pacific might serve as a crucial factor in maintaining regional stability.
Chinese Military Aggression and Pressure
Taiwan faces heightened pressure from China's military maneuvers, evident in the frequency and scale of military exercises around the island. The new normal includes daily incursions over the Taiwan Strait’s median line, representing an escalation in China’s coercive strategy. This pattern of aggressive military activity aims to intimidate Taiwan and demonstrate Chinese capabilities, complicating Taiwan's security environment. In response, Taiwan is reinforcing its military readiness and enhancing its counter-espionage measures to guard against increased Chinese influence.
Potential Outcomes of Trump’s Second Term
Expectations for the Trump administration's second term include strengthening ties with Taiwan through various policy initiatives. The administration maintains strong personnel who are known supporters of U.S.-Taiwan relations, which may foster continuity in support for Taiwan against Chinese threats. The administration's actions so far indicate a commitment to maintaining defense relationships, bolstered by anticipated investments and arms sales. However, there are concerns about potential shifts if the administration's focus diversifies or if domestic issues distract from international commitments.
Long-term Implications for Taiwan’s Security Strategy
Taiwan’s strategic decisions will have long-term implications for its defense strategy against Chinese aggression, emphasizing the need for resilience and adaptability. Taiwan plans to invest significantly in defense, earmarking up to 3% of its GDP, which includes bolstering its military capabilities and enhancing civil defense initiatives. The ability to sustain a credible defense amid evolving threats will rely on international partnerships and investments, particularly in high-tech sectors such as semiconductor manufacturing. As tensions rise, Taiwan's approach must address both immediate defense needs and broader diplomatic considerations to ensure its sovereignty and security.
Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Hoover Institution | Stanford University
The Hoover Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region hosted Trump and Taiwan: A Big, Beautiful Relationship or the Deal Maker’s Ultimate Bargaining Chip? on Tuesday, April 8, 2025 from 4:00-5:15 pm PT at Shultz Auditorium, George P. Shultz Building.
We are only in the first quarter of the first year of President Trump’s second term, but we’ve all already experienced a dizzying pace of activity. Whole federal agencies have been shuttered, some longstanding agency core missions have been upended, and we are suddenly in a trade war with unknown consequences. Ukraine has been dumped, then courted again. Canada is threatened with annexation, Greenland with invasion. In the midst of this chaotic approach to governance, the U.S. Indo-Pacific policy is still to be defined. There are some disruptions such as new tariffs (though forecasted long ago), and the suspension of development assistance, but one could also cite policy continuity (e.g. AUKUS and the Quad) and a slew of traditional, conventional practices (e.g. leader visits with joint statements and annual military exercises). Yet absent the release of strategic documents such as a national security strategy, and absent a major address by the President or Cabinet official, the overriding feelings in the region are uncertainty and unease. This very much includes Taiwan. While Taiwan has pro-actively taken steps to earn the “right” kind of attention of the new U.S. Administration such as announcing major investments in the United States and increases to its defense budget, many critical questions remain. Are we on the cusp of a closer, stronger relationship with Taiwan with enduring commitments, or are we building trade space for President Trump’s next big deal with China? Mr. Schriver will explore these important topics based on his three decades of policy work related to Taiwan and the Indo-pacific, as well as his services as a senior official in the first Trump Administration.
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