HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on mortgage rates amid market disruption
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Apr 16, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst known for his real-time economic insights, discusses mortgage rate movements amid recent market chaos. He breaks down the impact of inflation on the labor market and shares his views on Fed policy shifts. Mohtashami also tackles recession risks, revealing both challenges and positive signs in the housing market. He emphasizes the significance of key indicators like retail sales, while reassuring listeners that market disruptions are often temporary. This is a must-listen for anyone navigating economic uncertainty.
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Market Calm Resets Mortgage Rates
- The market's recent chaos was a short-term shock that drove mortgage rates down by about 20-25 basis points from Friday's peak.
- With the current calm, mortgage rates now align with economic data trends rather than panic-based extremes.
Fed Focus Shifts to Labor Market
- Key Fed officials prioritize labor market strength over inflation concerns due to tariff-induced price spikes.
- They expect tariff inflation to be a one-time shock, with inflation falling if a recession occurs.
Watch Key Economic Data Weekly
- Monitor jobless claims weekly and other leading economic indicators like retail sales, housing starts, and manufacturing surveys closely.
- Focus on data to gauge market clarity amid trade war uncertainties and tariff impacts.