Odd Lots Brad Setser on How World Trade Changed In the Last Three Years
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Jun 9, 2023 
Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former trade advisor in the Biden administration, shares insights on the evolving landscape of global trade. He discusses the ongoing U.S.-China trade imbalance and the surprisingly persistent current account deficit despite predictions of deglobalization. Setser dives into the rise of Chinese electric vehicles and their impact on the market, as well as the complexities of sanctions and energy security in Europe. His analysis uncovers the intricate connections that define our current economic climate.
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Global Trade Predictions vs. Reality
- Predictions like nearshoring and deglobalization haven't fully materialized.
- The US still has a current account deficit, and China has a surplus, but specifics are changing.
Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Trade
- Global trade stalled early in the pandemic but was affected by various shocks afterward, like Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- Despite these shocks, some global economic patterns remained, like China's large trade surplus.
US-China Trade Relationship
- Tariffs on Chinese goods haven't shifted trade as much as some predicted.
- China's exports have grown significantly, despite policy measures aimed at reducing trade.