Jake Henry and Mieke Van Oostende, senior partners at McKinsey, delve into the M&A landscape, exploring anticipated trends for 2024-2025. They discuss how smaller transactions are on the rise, particularly in tech and finance, and the transformative impact of AI on deal strategies. The conversation highlights the importance of navigating geopolitical risks and the need for a solid cultural fit in acquisitions. They also address the evolving investment and divestment strategies shaping company portfolios amidst economic uncertainties.
The M&A landscape shows a cautious optimism for 2025, driven by accumulated financial resources and the need for structural solutions.
AI is transforming M&A strategies by improving due diligence and integration processes, enabling firms to better evaluate potential acquisitions.
Deep dives
Current Trends in M&A Activity
The global M&A landscape experienced a slight recovery in 2024 with a 10% increase in deal-making compared to 2023. Despite this uptick, overall M&A activity remains relatively low compared to historical averages, particularly when normalized against market valuations. In the Americas, political election uncertainties delayed many transactions, resulting in some deals being postponed to early 2025. Meanwhile, Asia saw a shift in focus from traditional markets like China to countries such as Korea and Japan, driven by regulatory changes that encouraged new deal activity.
Regional Developments and Market Sentiment
In Europe, M&A activity dipped significantly in 2023 before showing signs of recovery in 2024, with corporate M&A gaining momentum alongside private equity participation. The report highlighted that large deals in the European market were fewer, with shifting dynamics indicating a potential increase in significant transactions in early 2025. The perspective that M&A remains crucial for addressing structural challenges further propelled optimism among industry experts regarding future deal-making activity. This heightened activity is supported by a more favorable climate for corporate executives looking to leverage M&A for growth and innovation.
The Role of AI in M&A
Artificial Intelligence is increasingly influencing M&A strategies, particularly in identifying target assets that align with corporate goals. The rapid advancements in AI technologies offer companies enhanced tools for due diligence and integration processes, allowing for a more efficient evaluation of potential acquisitions. Companies are adopting AI not just for acquisition but also for integrating acquired entities by fostering innovation and improving operational efficiencies. As executives seek to drive productivity through M&A, AI is becoming integral to decision-making frameworks, pushing firms to adapt their approaches as they anticipate future challenges.
Future Outlook and Strategic Acquisitions
Looking ahead to 2025, there is a mix of caution and optimism, with many anticipating a substantial uptick in M&A activity by year's end driven by accumulated financial resources and pent-up demand. Companies are encouraged to embrace a programmatic approach to M&A, engaging in multiple smaller deals rather than selective acquisitions, which historically yield better returns. The importance of cultural integration and understanding differences post-acquisition is emphasized, especially as firms navigate complex integration scenarios aimed at maximizing synergies. Overall, a proactive stance on M&A planning, with a focus on flexibility and preparedness, is advised to capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing risks.
This week we speak with the authors of our latest Annual M&A Report about trends in the deal landscape and what we might expect from 2025. Will the much-anticipated increase in transactions finally materialize? Or will players continue to hold onto their dry powder, waiting for the ongoing uncertainty that we’ve seen since the pandemic to settle down? McKinsey senior partners Mieke Van Oostende and Jake Henry co-lead our M&A practice, and in this episode, they share findings and observations from their latest report.