Peter Tulip — What Will It Actually Take to Solve the Housing Crisis? [Aus. Policy Series - LIVE]
Mar 25, 2025
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In this discussion, Peter Tulip, Chief Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies and a former researcher at both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve, tackles the Australian housing crisis head-on. He sheds light on the complexities of NIMBY sentiments and the restrictions imposed by heritage laws. Tulip argues for a cultural shift necessary to balance housing supply with demand and critiques zoning regulations that hinder development. He proposes innovative ideas, including 'street votes,' to facilitate community engagement in housing negotiations.
The housing crisis in Australia, exacerbated by zoning regulations and local opposition, has significantly outpaced income growth and affordability.
A long-term cultural shift is essential to overcome the fear of new developments, enabling a more abundant housing supply and addressing NIMBY attitudes.
Reforming zoning laws and setting ambitious housing construction targets are crucial steps towards making housing more affordable and viable for Australians.
Deep dives
The Historical Context of Housing Affordability
Historically, essential goods were scarce and expensive, with most personal spending directed towards necessities like food. This changed after the industrial revolution when innovation led to increased abundance in many sectors, although housing has defied this trend. In Australia, the cost of housing, particularly in cities like Sydney and Melbourne, has significantly outpaced income growth, tripling in the last quarter-century. This has resulted in a housing crisis characterized by unaffordable prices, affecting people's ability to live close to work, reach financial stability, and maintain familial connections.
Issues with Housing Supply
Restricted housing supply is a pressing issue not only in Australia but across various English-speaking countries due to common factors like immigration and local government control over development. The crippling zoning regulations that began in Australia during the 1970s compounded this issue, as rising demand for housing continues to surpass supply. Various factors contribute to this imbalance, particularly local opposition to new developments that often stem from concerns over property values or neighborhood character. This results in delayed and inadequate responses to growing housing needs.
Motivations Behind NIMBYism
People who oppose new developments often do so for various reasons, which can be categorized into protecting home equity values and defending neighborhood character. Research suggests that altruistic motivations are more prevalent than purely financial concerns, with many renters also identifying as NIMBYs. A common theme is the fear of the unknown, where potential benefits of new developments go unrecognized until they are in place. Overcoming this status quo bias is essential for moving forward with necessary housing developments.
Potential Solutions for Housing Affordability
Removing zoning restrictions and increasing higher-density housing can significantly reduce housing prices, as demonstrated in places like New Zealand. Reforming zoning laws could yield a substantial increase in housing stock, thus making housing more affordable over time. Setting realistic targets for home construction, such as Australia's national goal of adding 1.2 million homes in the next five years, could lead to modest improvements in affordability. Continuous efforts, coupled with flexible responses to the construction industry's capacities, are necessary for achieving these targets.
The Interplay of Demand and Public Perception
Increasing housing supply faces skepticism due to public perception that additional units would lead to higher prices, which contradicts economic theory suggesting the opposite. Overcoming this point of view requires clear communication about how supply impacts affordability. Australia's reliance on the real estate market for wealth generation complicates this issue, as long-standing beliefs about housing appreciation create resistance to proposed changes. Ultimately, achieving affordable housing solutions hinges on addressing both supply-side constraints and underlying societal attitudes toward housing equity.
This episode is the fifth instalment of my Australian policy series, recorded live in Sydney on February 12, 2025.
I speak with Peter Tulip—Chief Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, and a former senior researcher at both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve.
We go deep into what's driving Australia's housing crisis, the problems with heritage rules and height restrictions, critiques of both NIMBY and YIMBY thinking, the sobering 10–20-year timeframe that even an “extremely ambitious” supply plan might require, and the cultural shift needed to reach a new equilibrium where housing is truly abundant.