The Rachman Review Our shrinking and ageing world
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Jul 24, 2025 Nicholas Eberstadt, a renowned demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, dives into the paradox of modern demographics. Despite remarkable increases in health and longevity, birth rates are plummeting, especially in wealthier nations. Eberstadt discusses the role of technology, such as smartphones, in declining fertility. He also touches on the implications of an aging population and highlights migration as a potential solution. The conversation spans global trends, with emphasis on unique patterns in Sub-Saharan Africa and the geopolitical implications of these demographic shifts.
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Population Boom Driven by Longevity
- The recent global population boom is due to improved health and lower death rates, not increased birth rates.
- Life expectancy soared from 30 years in 1900 to over 70 years today, fueling population growth.
Longevity Surpassing Predictions
- Human life expectancy has steadily increased by about three months per year for nearly two centuries.
- Predictions about limits to longevity have been repeatedly surpassed, suggesting no clear end to progress yet.
Global Fertility Decline Is Widespread
- About three-quarters of the world's population now live in countries with below replacement fertility.
- This trend extends beyond rich countries to emerging nations like China, India, and parts of Latin America.