Anastasia Amoroso sees economic momentum globally; Jonathan Miller discusses Manhattan apartment rents slipping; Seth Carpenter expects slower growth in 2024; Savi Synth shares insights on airlines and summer travel.
Global economic momentum expected to continue in 2024
Consumer spending shifting from goods to services indicating resilience
Deep dives
US Economic Outlook for 2024
Seth Carpenter from Morgan Stanley discusses the US economic outlook, highlighting slower growth in 2024 compared to 2023. Despite concerns like jobless claims and housing supply constraints, Carpenter remains optimistic for the US economy. He notes the importance of monitoring housing demand and suggests a modest economic slowdown.
Impacts of Pandemic Recovery on Economic Forecasting
Seth Carpenter acknowledges the unique challenges of predicting economic trends post-pandemic recovery. He emphasizes the need for caution due to unprecedented economic shocks and shifting labor markets. Carpenter highlights the need for flexibility in economic forecasts, especially considering the uncertain global recovery from the pandemic.
Consumer Spending Trends
Carpenter discusses consumer spending patterns, noting shifts in durable goods and non-durable goods spending. He highlights a slowdown in spending on goods but emphasizes continued strength in service spending. This trend indicates consumer resilience and adaptability in response to changing market conditions.
Market Volatility and Fed Policy
Carpenter addresses market volatility and the role of Federal Reserve policies in managing economic uncertainties. He emphasizes the importance of scenario planning due to potential shifts in fiscal, tariff, and immigration policies following elections. Carpenter underscores the need for humility in economic forecasting and a cautious approach to policy changes.
- Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, - Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel Inc President - Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist - Savi Synth, Raymond James Managing Director, Equity Research
Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital gives an update on markets at near record highs and updates her outlook following the recent rally stating she believes there's a fair bit of economic momentum globally. Miller Samuel's Jonathan Miller reacts to state of the housing market and mortgage rates as Manhattan apartment rents slipped in May. Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley reacts to data and shares the impact of impact of global elections on markets saying we're going to see slower growth over 2024 relative to 2023. Savi Synth of Raymond James provides insight on the outlook for airlines and travel going into summer.