Jack Shannon, a senior manager research analyst at Morningstar Research Services, discusses the struggles of active fund managers in picking winning stocks. He reveals that even with high hit rates, many funds underperform due to high fees and market concentration. Shannon explains how active mutual funds can lag behind passive ones, and he highlights the potential of small-cap stocks for better returns. He also explores the complexities of stock selection, making a compelling case for why amateur investors might benefit from professional insights.
Despite some fund managers winning with individual stock picks, their overall performance often underwhelms due to poor positioning and high fees.
Investors must critically assess the hit rates and past performances of active funds, as high past success does not guarantee future outcomes.
Deep dives
The Challenges of Stock Picking
Amateur and even professional investors face significant challenges when trying to pick winning stocks, as evidenced by research indicating that many active fund managers struggle to outperform their indexes. An investigation revealed that although around two-thirds of the biggest bets made by fund managers were on winning stocks, less than a third of the funds managed to achieve overall market outperformance. The findings suggest that not only are high fees associated with active management a factor, but there is also a broader issue of a lack of winners within the rest of their portfolio. Consequently, a deeper understanding of the hit rates associated with the remaining stock picks in a portfolio is crucial to evaluating the overall performance of active funds.
Understanding Hit Rates in Investment
The concept of 'hit rate' pertains to the percentage of stock picks that outperformed the index over their holding period. Research indicates that while active managers may have a decent number of winning stock picks, their overall performance often falls short due to poor position sizing and an inability to capitalize on larger holdings effectively. Passive index funds typically show a hit rate of around 40 to 45%, meaning the odds of selecting outperforming stocks are lower than many investors might assume. This evidence underscores the concentrated nature of market returns, where a few key stocks drive performance, making it challenging for active managers to maintain an edge.
Investment Strategies for Individual Investors
For do-it-yourself investors contemplating investing in funds with high hit rates, caution is advised given that even professional money managers with extensive resources often fail to pick winners consistently. The research shows that while some active managers may have high hit rates, this does not guarantee future success, as past stock pickers do not consistently perform well. Additionally, the aggregation of winning stocks does not necessarily equate to good overall fund performance because weighting and position sizing greatly impact results. Therefore, individual investors need to consider their resources and inform themselves adequately before engaging in stock picking, as achieving sufficient portfolio construction becomes a more complex endeavor.
Jack Shannon, senior manager research analyst for Morningstar Research Services, discusses how often active fund managers succeeded in picking top stocks. He also explains whether this information can help investors find better funds.
Are Fund Managers Good at Making Big Stock Bets?
Fund Managers’ Hit Rates
Active Fund Managers’ vs. Passive Index Fund Managers’ Stock Picking Performance
How an Active Mutual Fund Can Underperform Despite Holding Winning Stocks
High Hit Rates and Topping the Index
When High Hit Rates Matter More or Less
Can Investors Set It and Forget It?
Do-it-Yourself Investors Looking for Funds with High Hit Rates