The HC Commodities Podcast cover image

The HC Commodities Podcast

Are the markets forecastable? with Matteo Mazzoni

Mar 13, 2024
Explore the challenges and changes in forecasting energy and commodity markets with Matteo Mazzoni, Director of Energy Analytics at ICIS. From traditional methods to modern machine learning, adapting to geopolitical events and market complexity, and the vital role of traders in managing volatility.
40:54

Episode guests

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Quick takeaways

  • Energy forecasting has shifted from simple models to complex scenarios due to market volatility.
  • External events like COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions have disrupted traditional forecasting models.

Deep dives

Evolution of Energy Forecasting Over Time

Energy forecasting has evolved from simpler, stable models to complex, volatile scenarios. In the past, models relied on regression and basic forecasting tools due to limited data and regional boundaries. However, with energy market liberalization, more sophisticated models using machine learning have emerged to predict short-term dynamics. The expansion of energy trading, more players in the market, and increased data availability have transformed forecasting from basic regression to advanced algorithms.

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