The Inside Pitch w/Josh Towers: Ep 4

Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg go over the top stories in baseball with betting leans for the week.

🔑 Key Points

🎯 Max Fried’s No-Hitter Controversy: Scorekeeper reclassified an error as a single mid-game, disrupting Fried's no-hit bid (7.2 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 102 pitches)​.

🧠 Pitch Efficiency Benchmarks: Ideal pitch count is 13 per inning; staying under this keeps a pitcher in control with minimal stress​.

🏆 Veteran Handling & Stress: Josh argues that veterans like Fried know their bodies, and "stressful" innings—not pitch counts alone—should dictate decisions​.

💥 Kelenic vs. Acuña Jr. Discipline: Kelenic's premature home-run trot caused an out; Acuña's tweet referenced past double standards—sparking internal Braves friction​.

📉 Orioles’ Pitching Collapse: Orioles gave up 24 runs in one game; poor starters (Sugano, Morton, Kramer, Povich, Eflin) exposed the team's fragility​.

📊 Power Rankings (Top 5): Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, Rangers; ranked based on pitching, consistency, bullpen reliability, and current form​.

📈 Day Game Betting Edge: Home teams dominate early day games (e.g., before 2:30 PM ET) at 60%+ win rate; Cardinals are 5-1 in this slot​.

🧮 Orioles First Five Over Trend: Hottest bet in baseball—16-4-1 to the over in the first five innings​.

🧠 Mets vs Phillies Series Betting Tip: Strong lean toward first five unders based on matchups and bullpen data (Mets: 17-5 under, Phillies: 8-1 road under)​.

💸 Home Favorites Profitability: Betting all home favorites this season would yield $4,226 profit ($100 bets), with Padres (10-0) and Rangers (8-0) leading​.

📚 Summary by Section

Max Fried’s Yanked No-Hitter (0:02–6:54)

Scott and Josh dissect Fried’s near-no hitter against the Rays. Fried was in command, but a delayed official scoring decision transformed an error into a hit—nullifying his bid. Towers criticizes both the inconsistency and its timing, explaining how it likely rattled Fried's rhythm.

Pitch Count & Stress Analysis (2:13–5:45)

Towers distinguishes between “cruising” and “stressful” innings. Stressful innings (e.g., 35-pitch opening frames) wear pitchers down. He emphasizes that a no-hitter with low pitch count should not automatically trigger removal.

Scorekeeping Controversy Fallout (6:55–15:21)

Both hosts vent about the poor standards of MLB scorekeeping. Home team bias, inconsistency, and lack of universal scoring logic lead to absurd rulings. They argue it has real psychological impact on pitchers.

Kelenic vs Acuña Jr. Incident (21:19–32:24)

A viral tweet from Acuña exposed perceived double standards after Kelenic was not disciplined for lack of hustle. Towers criticizes Braves management for inconsistency and blames Kelenic's ego and history for the incident.

Philly vs Mets Series Preview (33:15–38:36)

The duo previews the upcoming Phillies-Mets series. Towers supports first-five unders due to strong starting pitchers (Sanchez, Wheeler, Peterson) and notes that bullpen form heavily affects series bets.

Trends, Betting Systems, and Profitability (38:36–54:51)

Scott shares deep betting data:

Orioles: 16-4-1 to first-five overs

Mets: 17-5 to first-five unders

Rangers: 12-1 to full-game unders at home

Home teams: 60.6% win rate in all games

Home favorites: 155-76, +$4,226 ROI

Power Rankings (54:51–1:05:58)

Towers ranks top teams based on full scope—not just standings. Dodgers top due to consistency, Padres and Phillies close behind. Rangers enter top five due to rising pitching form and learning to win close games.

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