HousingWire Daily What to look for in the jobs week data
Jan 6, 2026
This chat features Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst in mortgage and bond market analysis, known for his accurate forecasts on mortgage rates. He discusses the slight market reaction to recent geopolitical events and the implications of labor data on inflation and Fed policy. Logan highlights how the upcoming jobs data will shape mortgage rates and explains the importance of understanding seasonal variations in data. He also emphasizes the promising trend of improving mortgage spreads, making lower rates more possible.
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Geopolitics Have Limited Immediate Market Impact
- Geopolitical shocks often don't move markets much anymore because recent events have been absorbed by markets.
- Logan Mohtashami says oil changes from Venezuela will take time and are only disinflationary once production ramps up.
Labor Softness Drove Major Rate Moves
- Labor softness last year drove the 10-year yield and mortgage rates lower despite other pressures.
- Mohtashami credits 'labor over inflation' as the dominant force that pushed rates down in 2025.
Use Bond Moves To Read Jobs Week
- Watch 10-year yield reactions to every jobs headline during jobs week to gauge mortgage-rate direction.
- Mohtashami advises using bond market moves, not just Fed talk, to read rate risk.