Explore the complexities of the oil market as it navigates deregulation and tariff changes. Discover how OPEC+ faces challenges from non-OPEC supply and the evolving strategies of oil-producing nations. Delve into the implications of energy consumption trends on U.S. tourism and inflation. Gain insights into the surge in production from countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan, and how major oil companies are influencing market dynamics and future supply forecasts.
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insights INSIGHT
Optimism in Oil Market
Market sentiment toward oil is neutral to optimistic amid trade de-escalation and policy shifts.
Investor positioning and oil term structures reflect anticipation of prices returning to mid-70s.
insights INSIGHT
No Trump Put for Energy
There is no Trump put for energy prices; the administration favors lower oil prices to manage inflation.
Tariffs may decrease but remain significantly above pre-2024 levels, affecting oil demand negatively.
insights INSIGHT
OPEC+ Faces Supply Challenges
OPEC+ faces challenges as non-OPEC supply grows and capacity expansions by alliance members increase.
Production capacity is rising notably in UAE, Iraq, Kazakhstan, fueled by heavy investments, including from international oil majors.
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Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
The oil market seems to be pre-positioning to benefit from the tailwinds of tariff de-escalation, along with shifts towards deregulation and tax cuts. But while the recent de-escalation in trade talks has reduced the probability of a bear case, the ‘Trump put' does not extend to energy, as the administration continues to prioritize lower oil prices to manage inflation. On the demand side, markets may be underestimating the final tariff levels that the Trump administration plans to impose on US imports. On the supply side, OPEC+ will continue to face challenges due to the growth in non-OPEC supply and capacity expansion among some alliance members, especially as a significant portion of the capital expenditure for these expansions is being funded by major international oil companies. Given the diminishing price reaction to a 1 mbd supply cut—from $10 in 2023 to $8 in 2024 and $4 in 2025—and our outlook for $60 oil in 2026, increasing supply to maximize revenue might be the optimal strategy for an oil-producing country.
This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
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