Nicholas Gruen Coronavirus: decision making give uncertainty
Mar 26, 2020
Nicholas Gruen, economist and CEO of Lateral Economics, explains decision-making under extreme uncertainty. He discusses why early aggressive action can protect health and the economy. He outlines policy options from containment to eradication. He advocates adaptive policymaking, cross-disciplinary expertise and fair sharing of pandemic burdens.
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Containment Can Serve Both Health And The Economy
- Health and economic goals can align during pandemics when aggressive containment both saves lives and shortens economic disruption.
- Acting early and strongly increases the chance of exponential decline in cases and a faster recovery.
Treat Policy Like Fast Experimentation
- Test, iterate and adapt policy instead of waiting for a single expert answer.
- Run rapid experiments and use continuous feedback to adjust public-health and economic measures.
Early Warning Email On 22 February
- Nicholas recalled receiving warnings on 22 February that the pandemic was serious and early action was crucial.
- He used that example to argue for prompt, decisive interventions rather than delayed expert-only decisions.