HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on inflation and a possible recession
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Feb 12, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a leading analyst on inflation and the housing market, shares his insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the implications of inflation and labor market changes on mortgage rates, particularly after recent banking crises. The conversation highlights challenges in the housing market, including the impact of declining listings and consumer spending on economic stability. Mohtashami also delves into how government job cuts and fluctuating tariffs affect building activity and economic growth.
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Drivers of Lower Mortgage Rates
- Mortgage rates have only decreased due to economic scares or labor market scares.
- Disinflation in rent and better mortgage spreads could lead to lower rates by the end of 2025.
Impact of Government Job Cuts
- Cutting government jobs likely won't significantly impact the labor market.
- Most government workers are state and local, not federal.
Recession and Inflation Control
- A job loss recession is unnecessary to control inflation growth.
- Inflation has already decreased with growth above trend, proving this wrong.