HousingWire Daily
Logan Mohtashami on inflation and a possible recession
Feb 12, 2025
Logan Mohtashami, a leading analyst on inflation and the housing market, shares his insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the implications of inflation and labor market changes on mortgage rates, particularly after recent banking crises. The conversation highlights challenges in the housing market, including the impact of declining listings and consumer spending on economic stability. Mohtashami also delves into how government job cuts and fluctuating tariffs affect building activity and economic growth.
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Quick takeaways
- Current inflation trends suggest a shift towards disinflation, potentially paving the way for lower mortgage rates and a housing market revival.
- The housing market's recovery remains challenged by historically low new listings, highlighting the need for balanced mortgage rates to stabilize prices.
Deep dives
Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Strategy
Current inflation trends indicate a possible shift towards disinflation, with significant insights from various Federal Reserve presidents suggesting potential rate cuts. Recent data, including the CoreLogic single-family rent index, shows the lowest levels in 14 years, pointing to an easing in inflationary pressures. The podcast discusses how adjustments in consumer pricing impact CPI inflation, particularly in the first half of the year. If the labor market remains stable, a scenario with lower mortgage rates becomes more feasible, potentially leading to a revival in the housing market.
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