2026 Market Outlook | Ashley Neville, Carta Insights Team

Jan 8, 2026

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Welcome to 2026. In this special New Year’s episode of The Data Minute, Peter sits down with his colleague Ashley Neville from Carta’s Insights Team to dissect the data that defined 2025 and forecast the trends shaping the year ahead.

Ashley and Peter analyze the "haves and have nots" market where AI startups command a 40% valuation premium over their peers. They explain why solo founders now account for over a third of all new companies and how capital constraints are driving this shift.

They also break down the changing landscape for startup employees, including why equity packages have dropped by 50% and why many departing workers are choosing not to exercise their options. Plus, they discuss the liquidity pressure facing VCs, the "Nvidia problem" for LPs, and what founders need to understand about the Safe market in 2026.

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Chapters:
01:14 – Ashley Neville joins the show
02:18 – Fundraising: A market of "Haves and Have Nots"
03:47 – The 40% AI valuation premium
06:00 – Why the bar for media coverage has skyrocketed
07:34 – The surge of the Solo Founder (30% to 36%)
10:00 – The concentration of startups in SF and SaaS
11:17 – The new hiring reality: 10% leaner teams
13:34 – Why employee equity packages are down 50%
15:20 – Why employees are leaving options on the table
18:43 – The "First Employee" equity bump
21:10 – The need for better equity education
24:02 – The liquidity crisis: IPOs vs. Staying Private
28:05 – LP Psychology: Why invest in VC when you have Nvidia?
29:39 – Companies staying private for 16-18 years
32:10 – Fund Economics: VC vs. PE personal capital
36:20 – The most common founder questions (Safes & Dilution)
38:52 – Outro

This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.