The Data Minute

This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Arian Ghashghai, Founding Partner at Earthling VC, to discuss his thesis of investing in "weird stuff early."Arian explains why he bets on robotic oyster farms, virtual reality, and ocean exploration when other investors are chasing the latest consensus trends. He breaks down his "pirate ship" approach to venture capital and why being the first check is often more valuable to a founder than being the "most helpful."They also discuss the current state of the VC market and why Arian believes many funds have shifted from true long-term investing to short-term trading. Plus, Arian shares his unfiltered advice on raising from LPs, why he ignores "signaling risk" from big funds, and why Zurich might have a higher talent density than San Francisco.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:00 – Intro: Investing in weird stuff02:07 – Intro to Earthling VC02:47 – The "weird stuff early" thesis03:57 – Who are the LPs backing weird tech?05:47 – Why VR is a polarizing investment08:55 – The value of transparency with LPs10:49 – Case study: Robotic oyster farms14:36 – Do LPs push back on style drift?16:06 – Why keep the fund size small?18:50 – Portfolio construction: Diversified vs. Concentrated19:56 – Fundraising advice: Find alignment, don't convince25:46 – Can a solo GP really support 50 companies?28:42 – The three types of investors: Biggest, First, Helpful30:50 – Speed as a competitive advantage33:03 – Why Safe caps are just demand-driven prices34:11 – The cynicism of modern venture capital38:02 – Are VCs investing or just trading?41:31 – Do we need more VCs?46:41 – Avoiding consensus deal flow48:17 – Why Zurich is an underrated tech hub50:50 – Why founders love explicit investorsThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

Welcome to 2026. In this special New Year’s episode of The Data Minute, Peter sits down with his colleague Ashley Neville from Carta’s Insights Team to dissect the data that defined 2025 and forecast the trends shaping the year ahead.Ashley and Peter analyze the "haves and have nots" market where AI startups command a 40% valuation premium over their peers. They explain why solo founders now account for over a third of all new companies and how capital constraints are driving this shift.They also break down the changing landscape for startup employees, including why equity packages have dropped by 50% and why many departing workers are choosing not to exercise their options. Plus, they discuss the liquidity pressure facing VCs, the "Nvidia problem" for LPs, and what founders need to understand about the Safe market in 2026.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:01:14 – Ashley Neville joins the show 02:18 – Fundraising: A market of "Haves and Have Nots"03:47 – The 40% AI valuation premium06:00 – Why the bar for media coverage has skyrocketed07:34 – The surge of the Solo Founder (30% to 36%)10:00 – The concentration of startups in SF and SaaS11:17 – The new hiring reality: 10% leaner teams13:34 – Why employee equity packages are down 50%15:20 – Why employees are leaving options on the table18:43 – The "First Employee" equity bump21:10 – The need for better equity education24:02 – The liquidity crisis: IPOs vs. Staying Private28:05 – LP Psychology: Why invest in VC when you have Nvidia?29:39 – Companies staying private for 16-18 years32:10 – Fund Economics: VC vs. PE personal capital36:20 – The most common founder questions (Safes & Dilution)38:52 – OutroThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

Ben Orthlieb, Founding Partner of Blue Moon VC and a former LinkedIn corporate developer, dives into how his firm is revolutionizing venture capital through AI. He shares how Blue Moon sources over 12,000 teams annually, using machine learning to narrow the field to the top 5%. Discover why the traditional 'warm intro' is now obsolete and how AI-generated dossiers achieved a remarkable 75% meeting acceptance rate. Ben also discusses the importance of human judgment in decision-making and the challenges faced by mid-sized funds in a competitive landscape.

Is the "co-founder mandate" dead? This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Julian Weisser, co-founder of ODF and solofounders.com, to unpack the data behind a massive shift in the startup ecosystem: solo founders now make up over a third of all new companies.Julian breaks down the "Denominator Delusion"—the survivorship bias that tricks founders into forcing partnerships that often fail. They discuss why co-founder breakups are the silent killer of early-stage startups, the structural advantages of going it alone (including a 30-40% equity buffer), and why "authorship" matters just as much as ownership in the early days.Plus: Why founding a company has become too "high status," how AI is unlocking the solo path, and why the best investors are finally changing their tune on single-founder startups.Read the full "State of the Solo Founder" report: https://carta.com/data/solo-founders-report/Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:00 – Intro: The rise of the solo founder01:15 – Welcome Julian Weisser02:00 – Challenging the co-founder default04:31 – The "Denominator Delusion"06:20 – Why VCs talk themselves out of solo founders08:32 – Is AI the ultimate unlock for solo builders?10:30 – The hidden frequency of co-founder breakups13:15 – When interpersonal misalignment destroys a company15:04 – Can you add a co-founder two years in?17:52 – Is being a founder too "high status" now?21:28 – The difference between serious founders and "tourists"24:13 – Deep Dive: The State of the Solo Founder Report26:46 – Chart 1: Over 1/3 of startups are now solo28:30 – Changing investor minds: A story from the Midas List30:56 – How solo founders hire and build teams differently34:22 – The equity advantage: Why solos exit with more ownership36:33 – "Authorship" vs. Ownership 38:12 – OutroThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

Vivek Ladsariya, Managing Director at Pioneer Square Labs, dives into Seattle's startup scene and the potential of AI infrastructure. He discusses why Seattle is a top destination for AI talent and the impact of big tech on entrepreneurship. Ladsariya also critiques the venture studio model, explaining why many are struggling and how they must adapt to thrive. He emphasizes the importance of in-person collaboration and shares insights on investing in founders versus ideas, along with a unique investment addressing loneliness.

Peter Walker dives into venture capital trends, spotlighting the 2021 vintage's struggles and the rise of mega-funds. He discusses the growing dominance of lead investors and how geographical concentration, especially in the Bay Area, influences funding. The podcast reveals insights on bridge financing, the decrease in down rounds, and evolving deal structures. Peter also answers practical questions on fundraising strategies for GPs, emphasizing the importance of showcasing distinctiveness to attract LPs in a competitive landscape.

In this special live episode of The Data Minute, recorded in San Francisco, Peter is joined by Janelle Teng from Bessemer Venture Partners for a data-driven look at the state of AI fundraising.Peter and Janelle walk through the data on everything from the AI valuation premium to the new benchmarks for growth, breaking down Bessemer's "Supernovas" and "Shooting Stars" framework. They discuss why fundraising timelines have gotten longer, how dilution remains steady despite soaring valuations, and why San Francisco is still the undisputed center of the AI boom. Plus, they take questions from an audience of AI founders on everything from calculating TAM to navigating a potential AI bubble.This is your front-row seat to the conversation every AI founder needs to hear.The State of AI 2025 - Bessemer Venture Partners:https://www.bvp.com/atlas/the-state-of-ai-2025Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/01:03 – A look back: Venture funding since 202102:35 – Pre-ChatGPT vs. Post-ChatGPT funding waves04:18 – How long should your runway be today?04:54 – "Nail it before you scale it": The philosophy of efficient growth06:15 – The new reality of Seed-to-Series-A graduation rates07:31 – Is every software company now an AI company?09:27 – The AI valuation premium at the Seed stage11:14 – AI infrastructure vs. application layer companies13:06 – Bessemer's benchmarks: "Supernovas" vs. "Shooting Stars"14:36 – Why top-line growth can be misleading17:10 – Why retention is table stakes, but gross margins can wait21:12 – The new benchmark: Revenue per employee22:48 – Advice for founders who aren't a "Supernova"26:45 – Why dilution has remained steady at ~20%30:39 – Valuation is not a badge of honor—it's a hurdle33:20 – Why the Bay Area is still the center of the AI universe35:56 – The hiring slowdown and the rise of lean teams38:51 – The soaring cost of AI/ML engineering talent40:00 – Bessemer's key takeaways on the future of AI43:13 – Audience Q&A starts43:33 – Q1: How should founders think about calculating TAM?46:44 – Q2: As a frontier tech company, how do we compete with app-layer startups?48:48 – Q3: How do we compete against incumbents who are adding native AI features?51:31 – Q4: Should VCs back fewer "good" companies to chase the "Supernovas"?55:03 – Q5: Are we in an AI bubble, and when will it pop?This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

In another special solo episode, host Peter Walker tackles the most requested topic on The Data Minute: AI funding and valuations. Using data from Carta and Bessemer Venture Partners, Peter unpacks what’s really happening inside the AI boom.He walks through five key charts that reveal where the capital is flowing, the massive valuation premiums AI-native companies command at Seed and Series A, and why San Francisco is still the undisputed center of the AI universe. Peter also breaks down Bessemer's new benchmarks for growth, "Supernovas" and "Shooting Stars", and explains the incredible speed at which top AI companies are reaching $100 million in revenue.This episode is a tactical guide for founders, explaining the new growth expectations in venture and the critical trade-off between speed and profitability.AI Fundraising Trends 2024:https://carta.com/data/ai-fundraising-trends-2024The State of AI 2025 - Bessemer Venture Partners:https://www.bvp.com/atlas/the-state-of-ai-2025Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/00:00 – Intro: A deep dive into AI funding and valuations00:50 – How capital is flowing into AI by stage01:34 – Why SF is the geographic center of AI02:23 – The 40% valuation premium for AI startups at Seed03:42 – The AI premium continues at Series A04:37 – The barbell effect: Mega-rounds at early stages05:07 – Bessemer's benchmarks: "Supernovas" vs. "Shooting Stars"06:11 – A new class of company: The growth of a "Shooting Star"07:22 – How quickly today's AI startups reach $100M ARR08:25 – Takeaway #1: The bar for growth has been raised for everyone08:54 – Takeaway #2: The trade-off between growth and profitability09:50 – Final thoughts for early-stage foundersThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

This week, Peter is joined by Yohei Nakajima, founding partner of Untapped VC and one of the most forward-thinking investors in the AI space. Known for his public experiments with AI agents and automations, Yohei shares his radically different approach to venture capital: investing from the top down.Yohei explains how he uses the social networking site X and his AI community, Baby AGI, to map market trends, develop a unique conviction, and source founders, flipping the traditional referral-based VC model on its head. He also dives deep into his personal quest to automate the mundane parts of the investor workflow, what he’s learned from building an AI version of himself, and what parts of the job can never be replaced by a machine.This episode is a look into the future of venture capital, packed with insights on building a differentiated brand, why founders should lean into their strengths, and how AI is changing what it means to be an early-stage investor.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/00:00 – Intro: A top-down approach to VC01:45 – Why top-down investing is Untapped's core thesis02:24 – How to build unique conviction as an investor04:15 – Using a public audience to source and vet founders05:02 – Why don’t more pre-seed VCs do outbound sourcing?06:29 – How defensible are today’s fast-growing AI companies?08:00 – The "hobbyist" VC: How genuine joy becomes a differentiator09:15 – The surprising bottleneck of automating your own job10:48 – What is a VC's core value when tasks are automated?11:45 – The parts of the VC job that should never be automated13:20 – Lessons from building an AI version of yourself to advise founders14:12 – How much of VC advice is standardized?15:40 – Why innovating on portfolio construction is so difficult17:18 – How AI experiments can provide value back to LPs19:03 – Pitching an AI-native VC: How to stand out20:31 – Why are so many founders building the same thing?22:24 – Does a "breakout" launch signal a company's potential?23:56 – Should founders focus on their strengths or weaknesses?25:18 – A pre-seed take on today's frothy AI valuations26:49 – Inside the VC mindset: Why investors can be surprisingly risk-averse28:04 – Are accelerators still useful for early-stage founders?30:15 – The San Francisco question: Do you still need to be there?32:48 – How pre-seed founders are thinking about their capital strategy37:25 – Why haven't more VC funds automated their own operations?38:52 – Acting as a one-man R&D department for the VC industry41:28 – The next big trend in AI: Context management and memory44:23 – The future of Untapped: From a single fund to a VC platform?47:11 – Who should be a VC that isn't one today?49:10 – The most creative way an investor can add valueThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

In this special solo episode of The Data Minute, host Peter Walker dives into the data from Carta's latest research on the state of startup hiring. With hiring down month-over-month since 2021, Peter unpacks the trends that every founder, operator, and investor needs to understand.Using five key charts, Peter breaks down the current talent landscape: the shrinking gap between layoffs and voluntary departures, the reality of net headcount growth, and the "one in, one out" philosophy that's defining today's hiring environment. He also explores how these trends differ by industry and which roles are still in high demand.Is this slowdown a temporary blip or the new normal in an age of AI and hyper-efficiency? Get the data-driven answers in this can't-miss deep dive.State of Startup Compensation: H1 2025:https://carta.com/data/startup-compensation-h1-2025/Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/00:00 – Intro: A deep dive into startup hiring01:19 – Chart 1: Voluntary departures vs. layoffs02:28 – Why the current ratio is so unusual03:20 – Chart 2: New hires vs. total departures04:22 – Is the startup ecosystem shrinking?05:16 – Chart 3: Net headcount change over time05:56 – The "one in, one out" hiring philosophy06:38 – Chart 4: A breakdown of hiring trends by industry07:52 – Chart 5: Who is actually getting hired?08:17 – Is AI really replacing engineers? 08:54 – Final take: Why small, efficient teams are here to stayThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.