The Data Minute

In another special solo episode, host Peter Walker tackles the most requested topic on The Data Minute: AI funding and valuations. Using data from Carta and Bessemer Venture Partners, Peter unpacks what’s really happening inside the AI boom.He walks through five key charts that reveal where the capital is flowing, the massive valuation premiums AI-native companies command at Seed and Series A, and why San Francisco is still the undisputed center of the AI universe. Peter also breaks down Bessemer's new benchmarks for growth, "Supernovas" and "Shooting Stars", and explains the incredible speed at which top AI companies are reaching $100 million in revenue.This episode is a tactical guide for founders, explaining the new growth expectations in venture and the critical trade-off between speed and profitability.AI Fundraising Trends 2024:https://carta.com/data/ai-fundraising-trends-2024The State of AI 2025 - Bessemer Venture Partners:https://www.bvp.com/atlas/the-state-of-ai-2025Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/00:00 – Intro: A deep dive into AI funding and valuations00:50 – How capital is flowing into AI by stage01:34 – Why SF is the geographic center of AI02:23 – The 40% valuation premium for AI startups at Seed03:42 – The AI premium continues at Series A04:37 – The barbell effect: Mega-rounds at early stages05:07 – Bessemer's benchmarks: "Supernovas" vs. "Shooting Stars"06:11 – A new class of company: The growth of a "Shooting Star"07:22 – How quickly today's AI startups reach $100M ARR08:25 – Takeaway #1: The bar for growth has been raised for everyone08:54 – Takeaway #2: The trade-off between growth and profitability09:50 – Final thoughts for early-stage foundersThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

This week, Peter is joined by Yohei Nakajima, founding partner of Untapped VC and one of the most forward-thinking investors in the AI space. Known for his public experiments with AI agents and automations, Yohei shares his radically different approach to venture capital: investing from the top down.Yohei explains how he uses the social networking site X and his AI community, Baby AGI, to map market trends, develop a unique conviction, and source founders, flipping the traditional referral-based VC model on its head. He also dives deep into his personal quest to automate the mundane parts of the investor workflow, what he’s learned from building an AI version of himself, and what parts of the job can never be replaced by a machine.This episode is a look into the future of venture capital, packed with insights on building a differentiated brand, why founders should lean into their strengths, and how AI is changing what it means to be an early-stage investor.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/00:00 – Intro: A top-down approach to VC01:45 – Why top-down investing is Untapped's core thesis02:24 – How to build unique conviction as an investor04:15 – Using a public audience to source and vet founders05:02 – Why don’t more pre-seed VCs do outbound sourcing?06:29 – How defensible are today’s fast-growing AI companies?08:00 – The "hobbyist" VC: How genuine joy becomes a differentiator09:15 – The surprising bottleneck of automating your own job10:48 – What is a VC's core value when tasks are automated?11:45 – The parts of the VC job that should never be automated13:20 – Lessons from building an AI version of yourself to advise founders14:12 – How much of VC advice is standardized?15:40 – Why innovating on portfolio construction is so difficult17:18 – How AI experiments can provide value back to LPs19:03 – Pitching an AI-native VC: How to stand out20:31 – Why are so many founders building the same thing?22:24 – Does a "breakout" launch signal a company's potential?23:56 – Should founders focus on their strengths or weaknesses?25:18 – A pre-seed take on today's frothy AI valuations26:49 – Inside the VC mindset: Why investors can be surprisingly risk-averse28:04 – Are accelerators still useful for early-stage founders?30:15 – The San Francisco question: Do you still need to be there?32:48 – How pre-seed founders are thinking about their capital strategy37:25 – Why haven't more VC funds automated their own operations?38:52 – Acting as a one-man R&D department for the VC industry41:28 – The next big trend in AI: Context management and memory44:23 – The future of Untapped: From a single fund to a VC platform?47:11 – Who should be a VC that isn't one today?49:10 – The most creative way an investor can add valueThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

In this special solo episode of The Data Minute, host Peter Walker dives into the data from Carta's latest research on the state of startup hiring. With hiring down month-over-month since 2021, Peter unpacks the trends that every founder, operator, and investor needs to understand.Using five key charts, Peter breaks down the current talent landscape: the shrinking gap between layoffs and voluntary departures, the reality of net headcount growth, and the "one in, one out" philosophy that's defining today's hiring environment. He also explores how these trends differ by industry and which roles are still in high demand.Is this slowdown a temporary blip or the new normal in an age of AI and hyper-efficiency? Get the data-driven answers in this can't-miss deep dive.State of Startup Compensation: H1 2025:https://carta.com/data/startup-compensation-h1-2025/Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/00:00 – Intro: A deep dive into startup hiring01:19 – Chart 1: Voluntary departures vs. layoffs02:28 – Why the current ratio is so unusual03:20 – Chart 2: New hires vs. total departures04:22 – Is the startup ecosystem shrinking?05:16 – Chart 3: Net headcount change over time05:56 – The "one in, one out" hiring philosophy06:38 – Chart 4: A breakdown of hiring trends by industry07:52 – Chart 5: Who is actually getting hired?08:17 – Is AI really replacing engineers? 08:54 – Final take: Why small, efficient teams are here to stayThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

On this episode of The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Drew Glover, founder and managing partner at Fiat Ventures and Fiat Growth, for a wide-ranging conversation on what’s next in fintech and what founders actually want from their investors.They dive into how fintech is moving from DTC chaos into quietly powerful B2B infrastructure, why capital is no longer a moat, and how AI may turn traditionally “unsexy” industries into VC-ready moonshots. Drew shares how Fiat combines strategic capital and operational firepower, why most products change after seed funding, and what VCs should be underwriting instead.This one is founder-forward, fund-sharp, and full of insight into where fintech, and early-stage VC, is going next.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:01:35 – Why fintech’s rollercoaster is (maybe) headed back up03:20 – From growth at all costs to sustainable strategy04:45 – The emotional weight of money06:30 – Fintech is everywhere08:15 – The founder–capital–consumer triangle is shifting09:10 – How Fiat “underwrites” with data from 300+ growth clients10:50 – What Fiat looks for in a founder12:00 – Obsession > expertise13:40 – Drew’s fintech investing thesis in the AI era15:15 – Can AI unlock investability in “unsexy” sectors like HVAC and services?16:40 – Are we about to lose a whole tier of founders to lifestyle design?18:15 – Runway > headcount: why startup raises aren’t shrinking19:00 – Capital is not the moat20:14 – Strategic capital wins deals: how Fiat preempts rounds21:10 – What “capital plus” means in early-stage VC today22:42 – Where does all that early-stage funding actually go?23:45 – Why founders need to become founders-as-influencers26:20 – Thought leadership advice for the technical or hesitant founder27:10 – People buy from you, not the brand28:45 – AI-native companies = raise big, move first, win fast29:50 – User loyalty, moats, and the AI ecosystem play31:05 – Fintech exits today? Chime isn’t a blueprint—it’s a relic32:30 – New fintech liquidity paths: acquisitions and stablecoins34:12 – Infra is cool again: why debt markets are getting VC attention36:18 – Public vs. private comps: who really feels the correction37:45 – Do early-stage fintech founders understand capital markets?38:26 – Laddering out: going beyond beachhead personas39:23 – Why Drew hates TAM slides (but still expects them)40:35 – Vision over product: why thesis alignment matters more41:12 – Fiat Ventures and Fiat Growth: how the relationship works42:42 – How Fund I turned client signals into conviction44:15 – Focus is the moat, even when it’s tempting to chase hype45:17 – Advice to younger Drew: do we need more VCs?46:25 – Being a founder–GP is harder than it looks47:12 – Why LPs push focus48:10 – How Fiat thinks about fund size vs. fund stage49:15 – Why GPs shouldn’t optimize for management fees50:07 – Reserve strategy, conviction, and when to bet once50:52 – Final take: VC is the best seat in businessThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc.

In this special episode of The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Dave Chen, Co-Head of Global Technology Investment Banking at Morgan Stanley, for a tactical deep dive on how today’s founders should think about going public.Dave shares what IPO prep really looks like in 2025 and beyond, why the best companies start working with bankers 2–3 years ahead of a listing, how institutional investors actually evaluate growth-stage companies, and which metrics every founder needs to start tracking long before they file a public S-1. He also breaks down the difference between “lean in” and “sobering” market windows, how valuation strategy works behind the scenes, and what happens in the high-pressure decision days right before a public debut.If you’re leading an aspirational company, or running growth-stage finance, this is the IPO playbook you’ve been waiting for.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:01:12 – Dave Chen’s path from pre-med to tech investment banking02:53 – The enduring founder journey from startup to IPO04:16 – IPO timelines have changed06:21 – How scale has shifted in the public markets07:28 – Is there still room for smaller IPOs?08:31 – Lean in vs. sober & clinical10:03 – Why companies now engage banks years before IPO12:00 – How founders can gauge IPO readiness13:08 – Building investor relationships years ahead of a roadshow14:34 – What happens when the IPO timeline shifts16:11 – 2024 recap: What happened, and what didn’t, in tech IPOs17:32 – The real reason we didn’t see more IPOs18:44 – Private capital changed the game for late-stage companies20:01 – The rise of structured late-stage rounds21:03 – How growth + downside protection are unlocking new deals22:53 – Why public investors love private exposure early23:06 – Does IPO prep differ for tech vs. non-tech companies?24:15 – 2–3 years out: What founders should focus on first25:13 – Most teams don’t optimize metrics correctly26:02 – The management team matters before and after the IPO27:26 – Designing a board that adds real support28:12 – Why predictable revenue matters pre-IPO29:34 – The fuel founders need to operate like a public company30:53 – The small M&A move that delayed an IPO by six months33:14 – Biggest mistake? Letting the IPO process control you35:15 – The point of no return36:32 – How banks help guide IPO valuation strategy38:15 – What to do when you don’t have direct comps40:01 – Getting credit for your company’s future performance43:28 – Should you raise the price range?44:26 – Press coverage and the IPO signal vs. noise45:19 – Start IPO readiness years before you need itThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved. Initial public offerings (IPOs) and secondary offering suitability requirements apply. There is no guarantee of receiving IPO shares. Please be advised that public offerings are not suitable for all investors. IPOs are highly volatile and risky and should not be considered by investors with conservative investment objectives or low tolerance for risk. CRC 4745633 (08/2025)

Stephanie Srulowitz, co-head of U.S. Private Funds at Weil, Gotshal & Manges, shares her insights on launching private equity firms. She discusses the motivations behind experienced professionals spinning out and starting their own funds. The conversation covers vital strategies for securing seed capital and the nuances of engaging with limited partners. Stephanie also highlights the importance of fund terms and negotiations, revealing how being 'too creative' might limit appeal to investors. Overall, it’s a masterclass for aspiring fund managers.

This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with David Zhou, Head of Investor Relations at Alchemist Accelerator and the host of Superclusters, for a deep dive into how LPs choose, and say no to, emerging managers.David shares what hundreds of GP conversations have taught him about building trust and avoiding the "sea of sameness.” They talk about why charisma can be learned, how LPs think about relationship-building versus returns, and why fund managers should spend less time pitching and more time listening. Plus: the strange origin of venture capital as we know it, the story behind a viral LP blog post, and how tracking birthdays, gifts, and “fun facts” can help you raise your next fund.It’s fast, it’s tactical, and it's exactly the kind of honest LP feedback GPs rarely get to hear.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:01:35 – LinkedIn bios, authenticity, and under-optimizing for SEO02:43 – Why David might remove “angel investor” from his profile04:50 – Saying “LP” out loud: the weirdness of deal flow labeling06:10 – Sourcing, picking, and winning: how LPs assess fund managers08:50 – What makes an “emerging” manager, really?10:13 – Should LPs invest in a firm—or just fund one?11:55 – The myth of quick markups, and why LPs think long13:23 – Pattern-matching vs. patience: how LPs develop taste14:55 – The Odysseus strategy: when to say no (even to great funds)17:47 – Why humility and honesty work better than fake urgency19:20 – Do some LPs still think venture capital is “art collecting”?21:10 – Helping LPs understand: is it worth being the educator?23:00 – First-time managers, first-time investors, and the long runway25:38 – Breaking into Middle Eastern LPs: no first meeting should be transactional27:45 – What hospitality looks like in cross-border fundraising29:20 – The power of thoughtful gifts—and CRM columns that matter31:14 – Should emerging managers stand out… or just be deeply human?32:32 – Whelming vs overwhelming: what LPs remember33:33 – Developing taste: why it matters for GPs too34:50 – The Dream High framework: who commands attention in a room?36:40 – Is charisma innate—or can it be learned?38:23 – Measuring growth in 15-year cycles40:00 – Common advice David gives insiders vs outsiders41:55 – Advice for “logo shoppers” and the risk of performative decks44:08 – Reality distortion fields and the allure of being “the only one”46:00 – Confidence vs clarity: do LPs actually buy better?48:18 – How many GPs does David see per year? (Spoiler: it’s hundreds)50:50 – The blog post that went viral: Non-Obvious Emerging LP Playbook53:40 – Do we need more VC funds? Just one kind.54:36 – Pre-seed is the new Series A—but we still need first-check investors56:50 – Off-thesis bets: what LPs actually tolerate58:04 – A 70-20-10 approach to fund strategy01:00:14 – The one pitch meeting structure David swears by01:02:15 – How GPs should actually ask for feedback01:03:25 – Tailoring follow-ups and ending meetings earlyThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights res

Lu Zhang Managing Partner of Fusion Fund joins Peter this week to talk about what it takes to scale an early-stage venture firm—and back game-changing companies—at the speed of today’s AI boom.Fresh off her oversubscribed $190M Fund IV raise, Lu talks about what most managers get wrong when pitching institutional LPs, what it takes to stand out in a bubble-driven market, and why true founder support means going way beyond capital. She opens up about her unique CXO and Super Founder networks, team-based investing philosophy, and how Fusion unlocks early commercial contracts—even from highly regulated enterprise buyers.If you’re looking to raise a fund, raise a round, or just understand how great institutional investors think, this is a must-listen.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:01:15 – Fund IV success: fusion in a $190M market moment02:14 – Why repeat founders are jumping back in03:32 – Different edges: repeat vs. first-time AI founders04:46 – Are we in a valuation bubble?07:10 – Fusion’s advice-first approach to early-stage rounds08:19 – CXO network as a go-to-market advantage09:44 – Why “revenue is the best capital”10:14 – Building founder loyalty through value creation11:33 – Handling tough decisions: shutdowns, M&A, and alignment14:38 – Distribution vs. recycling: how Fusion thinks15:15 – Fund structuring and reserving for multiple follow-ons17:05 – Matching long-term firm vision with scaling founder support18:12 – Working across sectors with deep research and reports19:31 – Beyond Silicon Valley: geopolitical signals + timing20:05 – What CXOs actually want from AI startups21:29 – Edge compute, vertical models & AI infrastructure22:24 – Enterprise readiness and compliance bottlenecks23:10 – The true cost of AI: what founders overlook24:18 – Portfolio growth stats: 20x revenue in one year25:04 – When small teams scale to $100M+27:15 – How to break into regulated markets with AI28:25 – Complying with data regulations by design29:12 – The upside of regulation-readiness for AI adoption30:18 – Foundation models & new healthcare openness30:57 – M&A momentum inside Fusion’s most recent exits32:14 – Fund IV hard cap decisions & LP allocation dynamics34:04 – M&A vs. IPO: timelines, outcomes & premiums35:07 – From angels to institutions: how Fusion’s LP base evolved36:01 – Building LP community with intention36:56 – Graduation moment: from emerging manager to fund IV37:47 – Why large LPs are warming to small fund strategies38:44 – Growing with consistency: keeping method > trend39:42 – The LP metric that matters: revenue at the portfolio level40:43 – Why clean marks and real revenue matter so much now41:17 – Has co-investor behavior changed post-2021?42:12 – Why Fusion’s map of investors is still highly consistent42:58 – Lightning round: sectors, geographies & support43:03 – Sector Lu’s most excited about? Healthcare & spaceThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

Beezer Clarkson, Partner at Sapphire Ventures and co-host of Origins, shares insights into the evolving venture capital landscape. They discuss how emerging managers can stand out amid mega-funds and the role of technology in enhancing communication. Beezer emphasizes the importance of authenticity in narratives and effective communication with limited partners. They also dive into how AI tools are transforming the investment landscape and the critical need for adaptability in this competitive environment. Discover what LPs truly value and how new GPs can build lasting relationships.

Join Ed Sim, Founding Partner at Boldstart Ventures, as he dives into the world of inception-stage investing. He discusses the shift in startup dynamics post-AI boom and how early-stage funding has evolved. Ed shares insights on identifying promising founding teams before incorporation and the emergence of 'discovery rounds.' He emphasizes the importance of proprietary data and why software moats are becoming rare. With anecdotes from his experiences, Ed offers honest advice for founders grappling with key decisions in their entrepreneurial journey.