Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

What Is It About August? (Ep. 97)

Aug 14, 2024

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP of Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, delve into the intriguing patterns of August market volatility. They unpack historical disruptions and the psychology behind investor behavior during low-volume trading periods. The discussion covers recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's rate hike, the important role of economic indicators like unemployment and inflation, and strategic investment approaches to navigate these choppy waters. A must-listen for any investor!

42:56

Episode guests

Sonu Varghese

Ryan Detrick

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Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

August is historically tumultuous for markets due to geopolitical events and light trading volumes, necessitating cautious investor strategies.

Investor sentiment shifts can create market volatility, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach amid emotional reactions.

Deep dives

Market Reactions to Economic Data

Recent market movements reflect heightened volatility, particularly evident in the S&P 500, which experienced back-to-back days of declines exceeding 1%. A weaker payroll report raised concerns among investors about a potential economic slowdown, shifting the perception of a hard landing from virtually nonexistent to a possible 10-20%. Subsequent unemployment claims data, however, revealed a more stable labor market, with a significant rally following positive initial claims figures. This illustrates the market's sensitivity to economic indicators and emphasizes the importance of strategic planning in investment approaches amid fluctuating conditions.

Intro

2min

Navigating Market Volatility

15min

Market Rotations and Economic Insights amidst Volatility

4min

Examining Market Movements and Economic Indicators

4min

Analyzing Labor Market Risks and Inflation Trends

3min

Driving EVs and Economic Shifts

15min

The month of August can often bring unexpected market volatility, and in this release we touch on the reasons behind it and how investors can stay prepared.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the recurring phenomenon of August market volatility, discussing historical events that have shaken the markets during this seemingly unpredictable month.

Joined by insights from various professionals, they analyze the reasons behind these patterns and offer valuable perspectives on how investors can navigate the choppy waters of late summer trading.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

Historical market disruptions in August and their catalysts
The psychology of market participants during low-volume periods
The recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's rate hike
The importance of having a diversified investment strategy to weather unexpected market shifts
Key economic data, such as the unemployment rate and inflation expectations, and their impact on market outlook
And more!

Resources:

Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

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