Macro Voices
MacroVoices #392 Jesse Felder: Questioning the Soft Landing Narrative
Sep 7, 2023
Guest Jesse Felder questions the soft landing narrative for the stock market, expecting more turbulence. They discuss recession risks and market reactions, the relationship between interest rates and equities, and the potential value of recycling nuclear waste. Also, they express skepticism towards power in Dubai and analyze crude oil, S&P futures, and the dollar index. Outlook for gold and high-yield bonds is discussed as well.
01:09:48
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Quick takeaways
- Rising interest rates and potential monetary policy lags may undermine the soft landing narrative for the stock market.
- Equity valuations have reached record highs in relation to falling interest rates, suggesting a need for reversion to more normal levels.
Deep dives
Challenges of the Soft Landing Narrative
The podcast discusses the question of whether the current stock market rally is a bear market rally or a sign of a soft landing in the economy. Jesse Felder raises doubts about the soft landing narrative, emphasizing the potential impact of long and variable lags in monetary policy and rising interest rates. He presents leading indicators that suggest a possible recession materializing before the end of the year.
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