BONUS: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Talks Fed Rates Outlook
Oct 19, 2023
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, the impact of interest rates, lessons from past monetary policy, recent increase in bond yields, effects on long-term bond yields, federal reserve's target rate, and the importance of regional banks in the banking system.
The US economy has experienced unexpected growth fueled by high wages and decreased inflation, potentially reducing the impact of interest rate increases.
Predicting the future of interest rates is challenging due to numerous factors, including global rates and geopolitical conflicts.
Deep dives
The Strong Growth of the US Economy
The US economy has experienced unexpected growth, driven by consumer spending and a strong job market. This growth has been fueled by high nominal and real wages, contributing to increased consumer spending. Additionally, inflation has decreased, leading to stronger demand. The economy may be less affected by interest rate increases, as many companies have termed out their debt, and homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages are not feeling the effects of higher rates. However, interest-sensitive sectors like housing and durable goods purchases have been impacted by higher rates.
Uncertainty in the Relationship between Interest Rates and the Economy
The impact of interest rates on the economy remains uncertain. While it is difficult to determine the precise relationship between interest rates and the economy, the current strong demand suggests that rates may not have been high enough or for a long enough duration to have significant effects. The transmission from policy moves to financial conditions happens before the moves themselves due to increased market transparency. Policy moves mainly affect asset prices, interest-sensitive spending, and exchange rates. The economy's capacity to withstand interest rate changes may be influenced by factors such as demand, interest-sensitive spending, and asset prices.
The Challenge of Predicting Long-Term Interest Rates
Predicting the long-term equilibrium rate and the future path of interest rates is challenging. Historic low interest rates were influenced by factors like an aging population, globalization, low productivity, and the effects of the pandemic. However, it is challenging to determine the level of rates in the future. A typical tightening cycle may have left rates at 5% or 6% in the past, but it is uncertain whether the rates will return to such levels. Currently, the economy is far from the effective lower bound, but the future path of rates depends on a wide range of factors, including global rates and events like geopolitical conflicts.
Reflections on Monetary Policy and Lessons Learned
The experience of the pandemic has prompted reflection on the conduct of monetary policy. The pandemic created unprecedented challenges, and policymakers had to make decisions with limited information. The scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus was necessary to prevent a collapse of the economy, even though it led to some inflation. It is difficult to fully understand the long-term implications and risks, and it is important to remain vigilant in managing inflation and achieving price stability. Policymakers have learned that a shift from low inflation to higher inflation is possible, and the future balance of inflation risks is uncertain. The focus remains on achieving a stable and low inflation rate over time.
Speaking at the Economic Club of New York, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed could hold interest rates steady again at its next meeting. But, he warned a future hike isn't out of the question. Powell sat down for an exclusive conversation with Bloomberg Wall Street Week host David Westin, following his remarks.