Mobile Dev Memo Podcast Season 4, Episode 3: What is advertising incrementality? (with Garrett Johnson)
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Sep 17, 2024 
Garrett Johnson, an Associate Professor of Marketing at Boston University's Questrom School of Business, dives into advertising incrementality. He explains how marketing teams can measure the true impact of their ads and whether that impact is genuinely knowable. The intriguing concept of Ghost Ads is introduced, showcasing how they automate experiments and improve understanding of ad effectiveness. Johnson also discusses the commercial risks of ignoring incrementality, emphasizing the need for rigorous measurement in today's complex advertising landscape.
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Incrementality Definition
- Incrementality measures the causal effect of advertising on metrics like sales.
- It isolates the additional sales driven by ads, recognizing that consumers often buy regardless of ads.
Retargeting Overestimation
- Retargeting campaigns often overestimate their impact, as many targeted users would have purchased anyway.
- A study found only 10% of sales from retargeted users were truly incremental, revealing potential over-attribution by a factor of 10.
eBay and Bing
- A classic study showed that eBay retained nearly all search traffic even after stopping branded keyword ads on Bing.
- This highlighted how brand searches often indicate existing purchase intent, making ads less incremental.