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Is Democracy and Peace Possible in Myanmar? A Conversation with Claire Smith
Apr 16, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Claire Smith, a Senior Lecturer at the University of York specializing in Southeast Asian politics, shares her insights on Myanmar's tumultuous state. She delves into the persistent civil conflict and the diverse opposition views on a post-conflict future. The conversation highlights the intricate roles of ethnic groups, the waning international focus, and the influence of ASEAN and China. Claire emphasizes the need for trusted mediation and the complex geopolitical dynamics that affect peacebuilding efforts in the region.
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Quick takeaways
- Myanmar's ongoing civil conflict, driven by a fractured opposition and various ethnic interests, complicates the pursuit of a unified peace framework.
- Localized ceasefires brokered by China offer temporary relief but risk deepening national fragmentation due to the absence of a cohesive peace strategy.
Deep dives
Overview of Myanmar's Current Conflict Dynamics
Myanmar has been embroiled in civil conflict since the military coup on February 1, 2021, surprising many who believed the country was on a path to democracy. This coup reversed nearly a decade of political progress, leading to widespread resistance from various factions, including ethnic armed organizations and citizens. The ongoing civil war has seen a significant rise in internally displaced people, recently estimated at 3.5 million, exacerbated by the regime's unpopular conscription laws. As the fighting continues, the international interest in Myanmar has diminished, making future political dialogue increasingly challenging.
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