Gas Versus Solar: South Africa’s Battle to Ditch Coal
Jan 24, 2024
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Emma Champion, BloombergNEF's Head of Regional Energy Transitions, discusses South Africa's energy challenges, focusing on the transition from coal to gas. They explore the country's need to balance economic considerations and policy decisions, the growth of residential solar installations, and the rise of renewable energy investments. The podcast delves into the role of grid infrastructure, emission reduction efforts, and the evolving energy market dynamics in South Africa.
South Africa is favoring gas over solar to replace coal in its energy mix.
Despite rolling blackouts, residential solar installations are increasing in South Africa.
Deep dives
Challenges with South Africa's Energy Mix
South Africa faces significant challenges with its energy mix, stemming from aging coal power plants resulting in rolling blackouts since 2007. These blackouts have led to 12% of net generation not being met, impacting the economy negatively. Operational failures and maintenance issues in Eskom, the national utility, alongside delays in new capacity, have exacerbated the situation despite planned coal plant constructions.
Financial Strain on Eskom
Eskom's financial health is crucial for the electricity market, with a debt of around $22 billion due to projects like new coal power plants. Financial challenges include low retail tariffs, delayed payments by municipalities, and Eskom's limited cash flow for maintenance. Debt relief packages have been put in place, restricting Eskom from building new plants and borrowing further funds.
South Africa's Energy Transition
The South African government's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) aims to combat energy shortages by stabilizing power production with gas, scaling back on renewable energy ambitions. While gas is favored in the short term, residential solar installations have increased. The plan emphasizes the importance of balancing coal retirement and renewable energy expansion.
Investment Environment & Climate Targets
South Africa emerges as an attractive market for renewable energy investments according to Climate Scope, with over $5.5 billion invested in 2022. The country's emissions reduction targets align with the Paris Agreement, with ambitious goals to transition its power system to rely more on renewables. Leveraging wind, solar, storage, and gas technologies will be key in meeting climate goals while addressing power supply stability.
With an energy mix dominated by aging and increasingly unreliable coal power plants, South Africans have been putting up with rolling blackouts all the way back to 2007. The government’s latest energy strategy lays out a path to reduce these electricity shortages by replacing coal-fired generation. But rather than renewables being the natural successor, the focus is instead on gas.
On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Regional Energy Transitions, Emma Champion. Together they discuss why South Africa is still looking to fossil fuels for its power supply, why the new energy blueprint has rolled back utility-scale solar targets as smaller rooftop installations boom, and the attractiveness of the country as a renewable energy investment opportunity versus other markets in the region.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal, on bnef.com or on the BNEF mobile app.