Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent for The Economist, joins Lina Khatib and Yossi Mekelberg, both associate fellows at Chatham House, to delve into Israel's recent military escalation against Hezbollah. They discuss the political and historical context behind these strikes, examining the psychological toll on both soldiers and the Lebanese population. The impact on Hezbollah's morale is analyzed, alongside broader implications for U.S.-Israel relations, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and the overall dynamics of the Middle East conflict.
Israel's escalated strikes on Hezbollah are driven by internal political calculations and the perception of Hezbollah as a persistent threat amidst ongoing regional tensions.
The complex dynamics of Hezbollah's dual role as a military and political entity complicate Lebanon's governance and influence regional stability.
Deep dives
Escalation of Violence Between Israel and Hezbollah
The recent actions taken by Israel against Hezbollah mark a significant rise in hostilities, sparked by the October 7 attacks by Hamas. Israel has intensified its military campaign, executing airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Beirut, which have resulted in substantial civilian casualties and mass displacement. Hezbollah has responded by firing rockets into northern Israel, further escalating the conflict. Experts discuss the implications of this new phase of violence, emphasizing that Israel's actions aim to decisively undermine Hezbollah’s long-term capabilities.
Strategic Considerations Behind Israel's Timing
Israel's decision to strike at Hezbollah now appears to be influenced by internal political considerations and strategic assessments of regional threats. With a significant number of residents displaced and military focus shifting towards external threats, Israeli officials perceive Hezbollah as an ongoing challenge that must be addressed. The deteriorating situation in Gaza also plays a role, as Israeli leadership seeks to weaken Hezbollah's influence while negotiating potential ceasefire solutions. Additionally, military analysts indicate that recent sabotage of Hezbollah's communications may have prompted Israel to act before the element of surprise was lost.
The Role of Hezbollah in Lebanon's Political Landscape
Hezbollah has maintained a dual identity as both a military force and a political entity in Lebanon, complicating the country's governance. The Lebanese government struggles to assert control over Hezbollah, which operates independently and holds significant influence over the state. Civilian responses to the ongoing violence reveal a deep division, with many Lebanese citizens desiring a resolution that avoids further militarization of the conflict. Despite public sentiment against further involvement, Hezbollah feels it must uphold its alliance with Hamas to maintain its credibility within the regional resistance framework.
Broader Regional Implications and International Response
The conflict's widening scope raises concerns about potential implications for regional stability and international relations, particularly regarding Iran's involvement. Iranian officials have indicated their preference to avoid a full-scale war, signaling a desire for self-preservation rather than direct engagement in the conflict. The U.S. reaction to the escalating violence suggests a nuanced approach, balancing support for Israeli military actions while cautioning against ground invasions that might provoke wider hostilities. Discussions surrounding the long-term prospects of peace in the region highlight the necessity of addressing the intertwined issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran’s influence across the Middle East.
With the Israeli military launching sustained attacks across Lebanon against Hezbollah, we explore why Israel has decided to ramp up strikes on Hezbollah now, even as the war in Gaza rages on and tensions continue to rise in the West Bank. Bronwen Maddox is joined by The Economist’s Middle East correspondent, Gregg Carlstrom. With them are Lina Khatib and Yossi Mekelberg, associate fellows with our Middle East and North Africa Programme.