Macro Voices
MacroVoices #402 Lakshman Achuthan: A Soft Landing Still A Dream
Nov 16, 2023
Economist Lakshman Achuthan joins MacroVoices to discuss ECRI's leading indicators, growth and inflation, predictions of a hard landing, and the stickiness of inflation. They also analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, explore the role of Ecry in navigating recessions, highlight concerns about crude oil inventories and market weakness, and discuss the current state of gold futures and its relationship with the weakening dollar.
57:52
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Quick takeaways
- The indicators suggest that growth revival is not yet in sight and the slowdown may continue, potentially leading to a recession.
- The analysis suggests that gold may face some consolidation or further decline before potential upside momentum resumes.
Deep dives
Cyclical indicators show economic slowdown and potential hard landing
The podcast interview with Lakshman Achuthan discusses the cyclical indicators pointing to a continued economic slowdown and potential hard landing. The speaker highlights the reliance on cyclical frameworks to understand the path forward, including assessing re-acceleration and soft landing possibilities. The primary focus is on comprehensive measures of economic activity, such as the US Coincident Index growth rate, to avoid relying solely on GDP as a metric. The indicators suggest that growth revival is not yet in sight and the slowdown may continue, potentially leading to a recession.
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