MacroVoices #402 Lakshman Achuthan: A Soft Landing Still A Dream
Nov 16, 2023
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Economist Lakshman Achuthan joins MacroVoices to discuss ECRI's leading indicators, growth and inflation, predictions of a hard landing, and the stickiness of inflation. They also analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, explore the role of Ecry in navigating recessions, highlight concerns about crude oil inventories and market weakness, and discuss the current state of gold futures and its relationship with the weakening dollar.
The indicators suggest that growth revival is not yet in sight and the slowdown may continue, potentially leading to a recession.
The analysis suggests that gold may face some consolidation or further decline before potential upside momentum resumes.
Deep dives
Cyclical indicators show economic slowdown and potential hard landing
The podcast interview with Lakshman Achuthan discusses the cyclical indicators pointing to a continued economic slowdown and potential hard landing. The speaker highlights the reliance on cyclical frameworks to understand the path forward, including assessing re-acceleration and soft landing possibilities. The primary focus is on comprehensive measures of economic activity, such as the US Coincident Index growth rate, to avoid relying solely on GDP as a metric. The indicators suggest that growth revival is not yet in sight and the slowdown may continue, potentially leading to a recession.
Underlying inflation pressures expected to stay sticky
The interview with Lakshman Achuthan delves into the direction of inflation, focusing on underlying inflation pressures. The indicators point towards the potential for inflation to remain sticky rather than rapidly declining. The speaker emphasizes the importance of forward-looking indicators, as they have been reliable in predicting inflation trends. While recent inflation data may have showed some decline, analysis suggests that inflation could stay higher for longer, contrary to expectations of a faster decline. This indicates a nuanced view of inflation and the need to consider underlying inflationary pressures.
Global trade decline and weak growth indicators
The podcast highlights the decline in global trade volumes and weak growth indicators, as discussed by Lakshman Achuthan. The speaker focuses on the 21-country long-leading index, which indicates a downward trend in growth across major economies and emerging markets. This decline in global activity is expected to impact overall economic performance. The analysis suggests that there may not be a robust recovery in global economic growth, which could impact various sectors and markets.
The outlook for gold and the US dollar
The podcast briefly touches on the outlook for gold and the US dollar. The speaker notes that gold has experienced a correction and highlights the importance of key levels, such as $2,000, to confirm a new upward trend. The analysis suggests that gold may face some consolidation or further decline before potential upside momentum resumes. As for the US dollar, the recent breakout from a consolidation range sets up a new downsloping price channel, indicating vulnerability and potential downside targets. However, the speaker also acknowledges the possibility of consolidation and a potential late-year rally in the dollar.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Lakshman Achuthan as this weeks featured guest. They'll discuss ECRI’s leading indicators, growth and inflation, the Hard Landing Lak still predicts and much more! https://bit.ly/49S2gBN