Freakonomics Radio Here’s Why All Your Projects Are Always Late — and What to Do About It (Rebroadcast)
May 23, 2019
Ever wonder why your projects seem to drag on forever? This discussion dives into the planning fallacy, where optimism and overconfidence lead to underestimated timelines. Hear about the infamous Second Avenue Subway project, a humorous yet frustrating example of delays. Practical strategies to combat these biases include using buffer percentages and reference class forecasting. Discover how cognitive biases shape our project management skills and explore the tools created to tackle these pervasive issues.
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Second Avenue Subway Saga
- The Second Avenue Subway in NYC was proposed in 1968 but faced repeated delays due to fiscal crises.
- It became a joke, symbolizing blown deadlines, until Dr. H restarted the project in 2008.
The Planning Fallacy Puzzle
- Roger Buehler's interest in project mismanagement began with a personal puzzle.
- He noticed a gap between his optimistic plans and his actual behavior, realizing it was a common issue.
The Planning Fallacy Defined
- The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate project completion times, despite knowing similar projects took longer.
- A study showed students overestimated thesis completion by 64%, highlighting the prevalence of this fallacy.