Edward Dowd: Housing Is Cracking, 2025 Recession Unfolding

May 28, 2025

In this insightful discussion, Edward Dowd, a former managing director at BlackRock and founder of Phinance Technologies, shares his predictions on the economy. He warns that the 2025 recession is already taking root, largely due to a fragile housing market. Dowd highlights how mass immigration has skewed economic indicators and discusses the impending fall in inflation. He also offers a contrarian view on bonds as a strong investment choice and addresses the fading AI boom, while raising concerns about gold's new role in finance and the risks surrounding crypto.

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INSIGHT

Housing Market Cracks Emerging

The housing market is showing early signs of a significant downturn, with new permits and home sale inventories declining sharply.
Housing inflation outpaced rental inflation since 2020, indicating home prices need to fall to restore balance.

INSIGHT

Unemployment Rate Misleadingly Low

The U.S. unemployment rate is artificially low due to illegal immigration adding about 2 million workers.
This misleads economic data, and unemployment will rise once these effects and possibly fraudulent data are corrected.

ADVICE

Invest in Treasuries for Safety

Investors should position for a risk-off environment by increasing exposure to U.S. government bonds.
Ultra-conservative investors should prefer short-duration Treasury bills to avoid duration risk.

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Edward Dowd says the 2025 recession is already unfolding, and investors are completely misreading the signals. In this hard-hitting interview, the former BlackRock managing director and founder of Phinance Technologies explains why the U.S. economy is far weaker than the headlines suggest. Housing is cracking, AI spending has peaked, and the true impact of mass immigration is just now being understood.

Dowd argues inflation will plunge below 2% by Q4, deflation is the real risk, and U.S. Treasury bonds are the best asset to own right now. He also explains why the Fed and asset managers were misled by faulty data, and why the housing downturn will lead, not lag, the recession.

Key Topics:

Why the housing market is the “white swan” collapse no one’s ready for
How 20M migrants artificially boosted U.S. economic numbers
Why inflation is set to fall hard—and what most investors get wrong
His contrarian call on the bond market and how to position for it
Gold’s new role in the monetary system (and a potential $10K target)
The AI boom is over, so what happens next to equities and jobs
Why crypto remains a risk asset… for now

Chapters:

0:45 - Inflation & Gas Prices: How Bad Is It?

2:17 - Why Dowd Sees a Deep Recession Ahead

6:30 - Are Cracks Forming in Housing?

10:17 - What Will Trigger Higher Unemployment?

13:10 - Retail Giant Collapse—A Sign of Trouble?

14:07 - Will the “Big Beautiful Bill” Backfire?

16:19 - Exploding Deficits: Is Austerity Unavoidable?

18:33 - Could Bond Yields Shoot to 6 Percent?

24:47 - Is the U.S. Dollar on the Brink?

27:46 - Recession by Q4 2025: How Likely?

29:03 - How Severe Could the Downturn Get?

30:12 - Global Fallout: Can the World Withstand a U.S. Recession?

32:14 - S&P’s Surge: Dead-Cat Bounce or New Bull?

35:16 - Commercial Real Estate: Next Shoe to Drop?

36:51 - Gold vs Bitcoin: Where’s the Smart Money Going?

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