Intro

Edward Dowd says the 2025 recession is already unfolding, and investors are completely misreading the signals. In this hard-hitting interview, the former BlackRock managing director and founder of Phinance Technologies explains why the U.S. economy is far weaker than the headlines suggest. Housing is cracking, AI spending has peaked, and the true impact of mass immigration is just now being understood.

Dowd argues inflation will plunge below 2% by Q4, deflation is the real risk, and U.S. Treasury bonds are the best asset to own right now. He also explains why the Fed and asset managers were misled by faulty data, and why the housing downturn will lead, not lag, the recession.

Key Topics:

• Why the housing market is the “white swan” collapse no one’s ready for
• How 20M migrants artificially boosted U.S. economic numbers
• Why inflation is set to fall hard—and what most investors get wrong
• His contrarian call on the bond market and how to position for it
• Gold’s new role in the monetary system (and a potential $10K target)
• The AI boom is over, so what happens next to equities and jobs
• Why crypto remains a risk asset… for now

Chapters:

0:45 - Inflation & Gas Prices: How Bad Is It?

2:17 - Why Dowd Sees a Deep Recession Ahead

6:30 - Are Cracks Forming in Housing?

10:17 - What Will Trigger Higher Unemployment?

13:10 - Retail Giant Collapse—A Sign of Trouble?

14:07 - Will the “Big Beautiful Bill” Backfire?

16:19 - Exploding Deficits: Is Austerity Unavoidable?

18:33 - Could Bond Yields Shoot to 6 Percent?

24:47 - Is the U.S. Dollar on the Brink?

27:46 - Recession by Q4 2025: How Likely?

29:03 - How Severe Could the Downturn Get?

30:12 - Global Fallout: Can the World Withstand a U.S. Recession?

32:14 - S&P’s Surge: Dead-Cat Bounce or New Bull?

35:16 - Commercial Real Estate: Next Shoe to Drop?

36:51 - Gold vs Bitcoin: Where’s the Smart Money Going?

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