Bits + Bips: Why Hasn't This Macro Cycle Boosted the Crypto Markets? - Ep. 702

Sep 11, 2024

Noelle Acheson, author of the "Crypto Is Macro Now" newsletter and a crypto macroeconomics expert, joins the hosts to dissect the current state of the cryptocurrency market. They explore why Bitcoin is struggling despite broader macroeconomic trends and the unusual expectations surrounding rate cuts. Acheson highlights three major factors weighing on Bitcoin's price and discusses the puzzling divergence between Bitcoin and gold. The conversation also touches on fiscal dominance, the K-shaped economy, and the underwhelming performance of Ethereum ETFs.

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INSIGHT

Crypto Struggles Despite Macro Factors

Crypto markets struggle despite easing monetary policies and devaluing currencies.
The regulatory climate and correlation with equities weigh on Bitcoin's price.

INSIGHT

Three Factors Affecting Bitcoin's Price

Three factors weigh on Bitcoin: politics/regulation, equity correlation, and self-fulfilling expectations of a bad September.
Traders are waiting for more clarity before investing.

ADVICE

Tune Out Market Noise

Tune out market noise if you're not actively trading.
Noelle Acheson suggests taking breaks from constant market updates.

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As crypto markets continue to struggle, experts weigh in on whether the capitulation phase is finally over and what lies ahead. In this episode, hosts James Seyffart and Joe McCann, along with guest Noelle Acheson, delve into the recent market downturn, the potential for a recession in 2025, and why Bitcoin's divergence from gold is puzzling analysts. They also explore the impacts of upcoming rate cuts, the lingering effects of fiscal dominance, and whether Ethereum ETFs are living up to the hype.

Show highlights:

Why crypto has been down so bad recently despite the macro cycle
The three factors weighing on the bitcoin price for the moment, according to Noelle
The chances of a recession in the U.S. in 2025 and how much the Fed might cut rates
Why the current rate-cutting cycle is unusual, with markets expecting far more cuts than usual, and how a potential spike in inflation could complicate the Fed's response
Why the K-shaped economy endures, driven by the U.S. government's reliance on capital gains taxes
Why fiscal dominance is a growing concern and why bitcoin's recent divergence from gold is puzzling, as they typically move together during crises
Whether retail has been a buyer of the spot Bitcoin ETFs or it’s just onchain traders who are now buying them
Why James says the Ethereum ETFs “have been an absolute flop"

Sponsors:

Hosts:

James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
Joe McCann, Founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric

Guest:

Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction
03:35 Why crypto is struggling recently
09:16 Three key factors weighing on Bitcoin's price
15:12 Chances of a 2025 U.S. recession and potential Fed rate cuts
25:55 Unusual rate-cutting cycle and inflation risks
32:06 Enduring K-shaped economy and capital gains tax impact
34:37 Concerns about fiscal dominance and Bitcoin’s divergence from gold
54:57 Retail vs. onchain traders in spot Bitcoin ETFs
1:01:43 Whether Ethereum ETFs have been a "flop"

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