Are We About to Enter the First White-Collar Recession? | James van Geelen

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Apr 7, 2025

James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research and expert in thematic equity research, joins the conversation to analyze transformative megatrends influencing today's economy. They discuss the looming white-collar recession, driven by wealth disparities and the rise of AI, promising to reshape the workforce. Delving into global economic shifts, they explore the consequences of U.S. fiscal austerity and international stimulus efforts. The impact on the Democratic Party amid job losses and evolving consumer behavior is a focal point, highlighting how economic policies can redefine politics.

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ANECDOTE

Early Trading Losses

James van Geelen lost a third of his net worth after early trading wins.
This motivated him to deeply study macroeconomics and market psychology.

INSIGHT

Market Narratives

Narratives heavily influence market behavior, especially during bear markets.
Understanding these narratives is key for successful investing.

INSIGHT

Trump's Tariff Announcement

Trump's tariff announcement caused market volatility due to its complex structure.
Basing tariffs on trade deficits suggests a more rigid, potentially disruptive policy.

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In Episode 408 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with James van Geelen, the founder of Citrini Research, which specializes in illuminating and demystifying the transformative “megatrends” poised to shape societies, economies, and the market’s distribution of returns for years to come.

James and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation exploring a series of narratives and investment themes—including Trump’s recent tariff announcement—that have captivated markets and that are likely to be highly determinative of investor returns in the years to come. They discuss the investment implications of a fundamental reorganization of the global economy, along with its supply chains, energy systems, and underlying technological foundations, to say nothing about the changing relationship of government and fiscal policy to the economy and asset markets.

In the second hour, Citrini and Kofinas dig deeper into some of the more consequential themes that they identify in the first hour, including:

The wealth-driven white-collar recession that could accelerate the adoption of AI and rapidly reshape the workforce.
The rotation out of U.S. equities as America turns to fiscal austerity and as countries in Europe and Asia engage in massive fiscal stimulus.
The implications for America’s Democratic party base if its supporters increasingly find themselves out of work and under threat by the policies and changes underway in the new economy.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 04/03/2025