Full Story Guardian Essential report: One Nation surges against Coalition drop
Jan 29, 2026
Peter Lewis, Executive Director of Essential Media and veteran pollster, breaks down a new Guardian Essential poll. He explores a One Nation surge reshaping the two-party dynamics. He traces voter flows from the Coalition, compares the rise to global populist shifts, and discusses public reactions to the Bondi attack and leadership optics.
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One Nation Breaks Two‑Party Model
- One Nation has surged to about 22% nationally, disrupting the traditional two-party 2PP calculation.
- Essential Media can’t produce a two-party preferred result because the coalition no longer functions as a single stable bloc.
Support Comes Mostly From Coalition Protest
- One Nation’s support is drawing voters from both coalition and Labor, but hurts the coalition three times more.
- Rapid movement suggests a protest or no‑confidence signal rather than firm long‑term intentions.
Populist Surge Fueled By Anger And Noise
- Populist right parties thrive when public confidence in the system erodes and media noise intensifies.
- Bondi’s febrile environment created fertile ground for One Nation’s surge despite limited policy platforms.