#26 – W. Brian Arthur: On Economies, Santa Fe, and a Life in Ideas

Dec 15, 2025

W. Brian Arthur, a pioneering economist and complexity scientist, shares his groundbreaking insights on complexity economics, developed during key moments at the Santa Fe Institute. He delves into how technology drives economic growth, viewing economies as living entities shaped by networks of components. Arthur discusses increasing returns in modern technologies, the evolution of firm strategies in the AI era, and the shift toward algorithmic methods in science. His multidisciplinary journey and advice for researchers inspire listeners to embrace passion and innovation.

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ANECDOTE

How A Bicycle Stop Changed A Career

W. Brian Arthur recounts being invited by Kenneth Arrow to a 1987 Santa Fe meeting that reshaped his career.
That meeting and the founding Santa Fe Institute launched the non-equilibrium, complexity economics program.

INSIGHT

From Identical Agents To Learning Agents

Standard neoclassical assumptions (identical agents, equilibrium) limit realism in economics.
Agent heterogeneity and learning under fundamental uncertainty motivate agent-based, non-equilibrium models.

INSIGHT

Economy As An Evolving Living System

Complexity economics sees the economy as an evolving system of reacting agents rather than fixed equilibria.
This perspective explains market volatility, institutional formation, and technological-driven structural change.

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In the very first episode of Scaling Theory, I mentioned a few scientists who have shaped my understanding of the world. At the very top of that list is today’s guest: W. Brian Arthur.

Brian was born and raised in Belfast, Northern Ireland, and went on to become one of the most important figures of complexity science. Today, he is widely known as the father of complexity economics, a field that has transformed how we think about the evolution of modern economies.

His influence is remarkable. Brian’s work has been cited more than 58,000 times according to Google Scholar. He received numerous awards and recognition, such as being the inaugural laureate of the Lagrange Prize in Complexity Science, an award that many have described as complexity’s equivalent of the Nobel Prize. Brian has been, at age 37, the youngest endowed chair holder at Stanford University. He went on to work for my institutions, including the Santa Fe Institute, as we will talk about. On a personal note, I consider Brian a friend.

Now, what makes me especially happy to have Brian on the podcast is the unique perspective he brings on how economies form and evolve. His understanding of technology, how it emerges and scales, offers a lens that none others have developed. It is a way of seeing economic life as something alive. Be ready to be blown away.

You can follow me on X (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠).

References:

W. Brian Arthur, Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events (1989) https://www.rochelleterman.com/ir/sites/default/files/arthur 1989.pdf
W. Brian Arthur, Foundations of Complexity Economics (2021) https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7844781/pdf/42254_2020_Article_273.pdf
W. Brian Arthur, The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves (2009)
W. Brian Arthur, Economics in Nouns and Verbs (2023) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268122003936
Thibault Schrepel, The Evolution of Economies, Technologies, and Other Institutions: Exploring W. Brian Arthur's Insights (2024) https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/8809341E2E94D76B8CCAB4A4DDACBC4C/S1744137424000067a.pdf/evolution_of_economies_technologies_and_other_institutions_exploring_w_brian_arthurs_insights.pdf