S4 Ep2: "I Prefer Male Presidents" (with Tim Miller)
Sep 30, 2023
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Political commentator Tim Miller joins to discuss the sorry state of non-Trump candidates in the Republican primary. They analyze the recent debate performances, assess Trump's electability, and discuss the decline of DeSantis and the rise of a new politician. They explore the implications for the Republican Party and highlight the positive reception of Tim Scott. They also discuss the strong criticism of Mike Pence and tease an upcoming episode on Democrats.
Some voters in the Republican Party express concerns about electing a woman as president, which may impact Nikki Haley's chances.
The Republican Party struggles to find strong candidates who can effectively imitate Trump's style without sounding conspiratorial, opening the door for non-traditional figures like Vivek Ramaswamy to potentially gain traction.
Ron DeSantis's fading popularity and negative feedback suggest that his chances of securing the nomination may be diminishing, highlighting the challenge posed by Vivek Ramaswamy as a potential alternative.
Deep dives
Nikki Haley's Mixed Reception in Republican Primary
Nikki Haley receives generally positive reviews in focus groups, but is not the top choice for voters. Her ability to win a majority of the Republican Party is questioned. There is speculation that Haley may be running to cut a deal with another candidate in South Carolina. Some voters express concerns about electing a woman as president, which may impact Haley's chances.
The Rise of Non-Traditional Figures in the Republican Party
Ron DeSantis's popularity has waned, but non-traditional figures like Vivek Ramaswamy still attract attention in the Republican primary. The party struggles to find strong candidates who can effectively imitate Trump's style without sounding conspiratorial. This opens the door for figures like Ramaswamy to potentially gain traction in state parties and national campaigns.
Tim Scott's Limited Appeal and Mystifying Campaign
Tim Scott receives some positive feedback in focus groups but is not a top choice for voters. Donor money may be shifting towards Nikki Haley. The purpose and strategy of Scott's campaign remain unclear, causing confusion among political pundits. Mystification surrounds Scott's efforts and his chances of success.
DeSantis' Decline in the Polls
Recent polls have shown a decline in support for Ron DeSantis, who was initially viewed as a strong candidate. He went from leading with 43% in January to only 10% in the latest poll, placing him in fifth position. Many attribute this decline to a shift in public perception, with DeSantis being seen as more polarizing and lacking the confidence he once had. Despite still having some support, DeSantis' fading popularity and negative feedback suggest that his chances of securing the nomination may be diminishing.
The Rise of Vivek Rama Swami
While DeSantis' support wanes, another candidate, Vivek Rama Swami, is gaining traction among voters looking to move on from Trump. Rama Swami is praised for his non-politician persona and his ability to run government like a business, which resonates with many base voters. Despite being in third place in the polls, his polished messaging and level-headedness are attracting attention. However, doubts remain about his consistency on certain issues. Rama Swami is seen as a potential alternative to DeSantis, capturing the imaginations of those who want a Trump-like figure without the baggage. His popularity poses a challenge for DeSantis and highlights the importance of winning over voters looking for an alternative to Trump.
One of our focus group participants really prefers that the president be a man. And most of the Republican voters we talked to have only one man in mind: Donald Trump. The Bulwark's own Tim Miller joins Sarah for part two of our season premiere to break down the sorry state of the non-Trump candidates in the Republican presidential primary.