Kontrarian Korner

Kontrarian Korner #23 - Le Shrub

Oct 17, 2024

Le Shrub, an insightful Substack author and Twitter personality, dives deep into the volatile world of commodities and markets. He discusses his unique investment strategy in oil and examines political implications on markets, particularly around potential Trump trades. Platinum emerges as a favorite inflation hedge, especially with Costco's play in the market. He also shares thoughts on coal stocks and spotlights tin as an underappreciated opportunity. Keep an eye on China, he suggests, as it may signal broader market shifts.

52:21

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Episode guests

Le Shrub

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Geopolitical risks and potential supply constraints in oil markets are crucial for investors to understand to navigate price volatility effectively.

Platinum's unique positioning as both an industrial and precious metal, along with its historical price dynamics, presents intriguing investment opportunities.

Deep dives

Geopolitical Risks and Oil Markets

Geopolitical risks related to oil markets have become a significant concern for investors. Historically, relying on these risks as an investment thesis has often led to poor performance for oil bulls, especially with the ongoing instability in the Middle East. Despite this, there is a growing realization that a single catastrophic event, such as an attack on a refinery, could unexpectedly shift oil prices. Consequently, some investors are considering options to hedge against potential volatility, even amidst high current market conditions.

Intro

2min

Navigating Oil Investment Volatility

14min

The Short-Term Mindset and Long-Term Investment Strategies

4min

Platinum's Investment Potential Unveiled

12min

Exploring Coal and Commodity Investments

9min

Market Dynamics and Geopolitical Risks

8min

China's Economic Rebalancing and Market Insights

3min

Once you realize it’s all nonsense then it all makes sense.

A couple days ago, I had fellow Substack author Le Shrub on the podcast. He writes over at Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator, and if you don’t already follow him, you should. He’s clearly the most talented trader in the plant kingdom, but we had a great conversation on different commodities, the market, and several stocks of interest. He’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* His preferred way to get exposure to oil, and what it takes for geopolitical risk to get priced into oil markets.

* The Trump trades, and how a Trump win might be worse for deficits, bonds, and the dollar.

* Why platinum is his preferred precious metal inflation hedge, Costco’s $COST (yes, that Costco) potential impact on a platinum bull market, and how platinum is trading at the widest discount to gold in history.

* His thoughts on several coal stocks, including Peabody Energy $BTU and Warrior Met Coal $HCC , and the outlook for metallurgical vs. thermal coal.

* Why tin is one of his favorite under the radar opportunities in the commodities space.

* His thoughts on broader markets, what he’s looking for to get bearish, and why investors should keep an eye on China.

* Book Recommendation: The Gambler by Fyodor Dostoevsky.

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