Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Recession Warning: The Real Economy Is 'Very, Very, Very Weak' | Craig Fuller @FreightWaves
28 snips
Nov 18, 2025 
Craig Fuller, founder of FreightWaves and a freight market expert, discusses the impending massive trucking capacity purge and its potential economic ramifications. He explains how freight data serves as a barometer for the economy, warning of a downturn in the goods sector and rising bankruptcies across industries like manufacturing and housing. They analyze the impact of AI on jobs, the risks of poorly trained drivers on safety, and the sluggish pace of reindustrialization. Fuller also touches on investment opportunities in transport and logistics amidst these challenges.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
GDP Can Rise While Goods Volumes Fall
- Freight measures physical goods throughput, not services or financial activity, so it reveals true goods demand trends.
- Fuller emphasizes GDP can rise while actual goods volumes fall because inflation inflates dollar metrics.
K-Shaped Economy Hides Deep Goods-Sector Pain
- The economy is K-shaped: hyperscaler tech and data-center investment lift aggregate metrics while 35 million goods-related jobs (auto, energy, housing, manufacturing, logistics) struggle.
- Fuller warns policymakers ignore this divide because stock-market strength masks broad-based weakness.
Bad Actors Evade Liability And Undercut Carriers
- Many illegitimate carriers can form and restart quickly, letting unsafe operators evade liability after accidents.
- Fuller details how easy registration and foreign ownership let bad actors undercut compliant carriers.